This week’s topic
Decorative base paper is an industrial special paper processed by special technology, which is mainly used for the manufacture of wood-based panel veneer materials. In 2020, the market scale of China’s decorative base paper industry was 11.48 billion yuan, the sales volume of China’s decorative base paper was 1.113 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.58%, and the average price was 10300 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1.74%. The growth of the industry was driven by volume and price. The transformation of existing houses and the shortage of wood increase the demand for decorative base paper. The transformation of existing houses provides demand support for decorative base paper. In addition, due to the shortage of wood, the demand for wood-based panel substitutes is released, which promotes the demand for decorative base paper. From 2006 to 2018, China’s wood-based panel output increased from 74.2856 million cubic meters to 2990929 million cubic meters, cagr12 31%。
The Cr4 of decorative base paper industry is as high as 75%, and the demand for medium and high-end decorative base paper is growing rapidly. In recent years, China’s decorative base paper industry has developed rapidly. At present, China has become one of the major producers of decorative base paper in the world. In order to cooperate with the subsequent processes such as dipping, printing and pressing sector, the decorative base paper must have the properties of high smoothness, good permeability and covering power, high temperature and high pressure resistance. Therefore, there are high technical barriers in the decorative base paper industry. Large manufacturers occupy the main market share with strong production capacity, stable product quality and rich sales channels, mainly including Qifeng New Material Co.Ltd(002521) Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) etc., the Cr4 of China’s decorative base paper industry will reach 75% in 2020.
Domestic household sector:
The launch of the policy of furniture and home decoration to the countryside is expected to promote the release of consumption potential in rural areas and further improve the penetration of furniture products; On the other hand, it is conducive to the head furniture enterprises with outstanding manufacturing end product power and leading cost control ability to continuously expand the sinking market, improve market share and expand brand influence. The continuous release of marginal easing signals of superimposed real estate policies is expected to repair the pessimism of the real estate chain. On December 3, 2021, the central bank and other three ministries and commissions collectively responded to the risk of real estate enterprises. The risk of individual real estate enterprises in the short term will not affect the policy financing function of the medium and long-term market. A spokesman for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that at this stage, we should focus on meeting the needs of first suite and improved housing mortgage, reasonably issuing real estate development loans, M & A loans and increasing support for indemnificatory rental housing. On December 8, 2021, while adhering to the general tone of “no speculation in real estate, housing and housing”, the central economic work conference emphasized “strengthening expectation guidance, exploring new development models, and promoting the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies”, which is expected to support the stability of the real estate market and repair the pessimism of the real estate industry chain.
Continue to be optimistic about the software home track dominated by “domestic demand + 2C”. In terms of channel power, software home has a natural barrier of “online can not replace offline” and “bulk can not replace retail”. The leading enterprises gradually occupy the core position in Ka stores, open series stores in the same store in a multi category mode, grasp the offline traffic entrance, and local and small and medium-sized brands may gradually lose the transaction scene, so as to withdraw from the core market competition; In terms of product power, in the past few years, Chinese software enterprises have significantly improved their product power by means of acquiring overseas brands and cooperating with overseas designers. Superimposed on the consumption trend of “the rise of national tide”, consumers’ acceptance of domestic home brands has increased; Software has little impact. Software home consumption belongs to personalized consumption, and hardbound houses are not matched. Therefore, the proportion of bulk business income is very low. The fluctuation of individual real estate enterprises has little impact on the company’s accounting period and short-term performance. In combination with the valuation and cost performance, we continue to be optimistic about the software leaders [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] dominated by “domestic demand + 2C”; [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] and [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] with good business structure and strong management ability are preferred for the customization section.
Aluminum plastic film sector:
As a whole, the aluminum-plastic film industry is in short supply. At present, the core driving force of the demand for aluminum-plastic film is the rapid growth of soft pack battery shipments, and the future increment may come from two-wheel electric vehicles, energy storage batteries, solid-state batteries and other fields. According to evtank and Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) prospectus data, the proportion of global soft pack battery shipments increased from 23.93% in 2012 to 55.83% in 2020, and the shipments in 2020 were 107.7gwh, yoy + 28.1%; From the perspective of competition pattern, the global aluminum-plastic film is mainly monopolized by Japanese enterprises, of which greater Japan printing (DNP) occupies 50% of the global market share and Showa electric occupies 20% of the market share. At present, China’s aluminum-plastic film technology has made progress, product performance and reliability have been improved, and the supply system has been gradually improved, forming a virtuous cycle feedback from upstream and downstream, which is on the eve of domestic substitution. It is recommended that [ Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) ], the core logic is domestic substitution. The essential reason is technological progress and the gradual improvement of upstream and downstream supply system. The unit price of aluminum-plastic film of 21q3 company is 16.8 yuan / m2, the average price of 21h1 is 16.0 yuan / m2, and the average price of 20 years is 15.5 yuan / m2. The unit price continues to increase month on month, and the industry competition is good.
Forestry carbon sequestration:
China is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market, and forestry carbon sequestration is the “gold” in CCER project. The global carbon market covers 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, 54% of global GDP and nearly one third of the population. It is estimated that the total quota of the global carbon market will exceed 7.5 billion tons in 2021; In 2019, China’s carbon dioxide emissions accounted for 28.8% of the world, and is expected to become the world’s largest carbon trading market! As a “negative carbon” approach in the process of “carbon neutralization”, forestry carbon sequestration has the characteristics of large carbon sequestration, low cost and high ecological added value. It is the “gold” in CCER project.
The “14th five year plan” and medium and long-term high-quality development outline of the paper industry were issued, which proposed to accumulate carbon sink and biomass resources. On December 10, 2021, the central economic work conference stressed that “scientific assessment should be made, the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from” double control “of energy consumption to” double control “of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon, and prevent simple layer by layer decomposition”; On December 17, 2021, Beijing Green Exchange resumed collecting all fees related to CCER trading; On December 24, 2021, the “14th five year plan” and medium and long-term high-quality development outline of the paper industry put forward five development goals, including accumulating carbon sink and biomass resources. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
New tobacco sector:
Recently, e-cigarette policies have been intensively issued, and policy norms have promoted the orderly development of the industry. On November 30, 2021, the state tobacco administration issued a notice on Soliciting Opinions on the national standard for electronic cigarette (Exposure Draft), which is to be officially implemented 3-5 months after its issuance. On December 2, 2021, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration publicly solicited opinions on the administrative measures for electronic cigarettes (Draft for comments). We believe that: (1) from the perspective of supervision, the overall supervision of e-cigarettes is basically consistent with that of cigarettes. All links need permission and approval, and unified centralized purchase platform sales is adopted; (2) The existing competition pattern of e-cigarettes will be broken, and e-cigarettes will enter the monopoly era. On the product side, it is good for manufacturers with high production standards, high-tech reserves and high capital reserves; The national, provincial and municipal representatives of e-cigarettes on the channel side will face a reshuffle, and wholesale enterprises need to apply for wholesale licenses. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ], [smore international], [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ].
Paper sector:
At present, the prices of most kinds of paper are low, among which the prices of cultural paper and white cardboard are at the bottom. We believe that there may be a tight balance between supply and demand in the paper industry. The “double control” policy helps to limit production and ensure prices, enhance the willingness of downstream replenishment, and improve the supply and demand of the industry. (1) Short term: pay attention to the follow-up demand (core factors), the strength and sustainability of power restriction policy, and the progress of new capacity launch; (2) In the medium and long term, the “double control” policy helps to speed up the clearing of production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, make it easier for large factories to pass the approval of new projects, and further improve the industry concentration. It is recommended to pay attention to enterprises with a high proportion of self provided power [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ], [ Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) ], [ Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) ], [ Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited(000488) ] [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
Risk warning: real estate sales and completion are not as expected; Upward risk of raw material price; Industry competition intensifies; Sino US trade friction risk, etc.
