Industry views and key recommendations
At the beginning of the year, we proposed that “computers at the end of the 21st century are like semiconductors at the end of the 18th century”. The core logic of this view lies in:
First, starting from the end of 2021, this round of computer market is the continuation and upgrading of semiconductor market;
Second, only being late is not absent. The industry Xinchuang started in 22 years is the real localization of software;
Third, the market is expected to re recognize the industry’s attribute of “long slope and thick snow”, and the computer will usher in a resonance between supply and demand in 22 years.
If the first two points are about medium and long-term logic, then the third point is more about data. Specifically: on the whole, we believe that the growth of the computer industry in 30 A-share industries in the past 22 years is outstanding, and the high performance increase of Companies in the industry may be a common phenomenon; Looking at the structure, the sector with the highest visibility and performance inflection point is financial it.
Performance is king. Based on this, we believe that the annual market interpretation can be divided into three stages:
1) the spring is restless, and the first is financial it: the logical deduction will be carried out along the theme of emotional agitation (digital currency) – Accelerated verification of industry (financial information innovation order) – performance continues to exceed expectations (or starting from Q1). Under the background of undervaluation and low peg, it is expected that the excess return of financial it in the first half of the year may be very significant. Reiterate the recommendation of financial it, the winner of 22-year computer investment, and recommend ranking bank it > Security and OA > basic software.
2) in late spring and early summer, upgrading from financial information innovation to industrial information innovation (industrial software): with the better than expected performance of Q1 in 22 years, while the heat of the financial IT sector rises to a higher level, industrial information innovation is expected to be implemented in industry and central enterprises. The corresponding sections include industrial software or industrial Internet of things, and the subjects involved include ERP, PLM, CAD, MES, etc. In addition to the industry Catalysis (industry information innovation, 5g industrial Internet of things operation), the sector is also expected to usher in a performance inflection point in the second half of 22 years.
3) in autumn and winter, the white horse of cloud computing is expected to interpret the structural market: the acceleration of industry information innovation is the second. We see that the innovation cycle of these companies’ products is expected to enter the harvest period in 22 ~ 23 years. If the business growth of such cloud computing companies in 17 ~ 18 years depends more on new cloud computing products in 15 ~ 16 years, the high growth in 22 ~ 23 years can look forward to new cloud computing products in 18 ~ 19 years. At the same time, the valuation of such companies corresponding to 23 years will be very attractive. For example, the success of Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) xaas and Kingdee is expected to become a milestone in the China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) industry.
Spring is the time for sowing. At present, we are the first to promote the financial IT sector. We recommend ranking the bank it > Security and OA > basic software targets. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the industry Xinchuang (industrial software) and cloud computing white horse. Under the expected game, we do not rule out starting in advance before the above time point. Still that sentence, “the computer at the end of 21 is like the semiconductor at the end of 18”!
4. Focus on the subject matter:
White horse mainly recommends Kingdee International, Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Shanghai Weaver Network Co.Ltd(603039) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , black horse mainly recommends Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) , Fujian Apex Software Co.Ltd(603383) , Beijing Seeyon Internet Software Corp(688369) , Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Northking Information Technology Co.Ltd(002987) , China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) , Qingcloud Technologies Corp(688316) , Tansun Technology Co.Ltd(300872) , Primeton Information Technologies Inc(688118) , Digital China Information Service Company Ltd(000555) , Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) .
Risk tip: the macro economy is depressed, the sector policy has changed significantly, and the international environment has changed significantly.
