New energy parity has entered the era of “energy storage +” parity. The substitution between new energy sources is a comprehensive comparison in terms of stability and cost. The simple comparison of kWh cost is not the core contradiction at this stage. Taking photovoltaic as an example, the biggest change in the industry lies in the “simultaneous rise in volume and price” taking the second half of 2020 as the inflection point, which reflects that the operators’ acceptance of the manufacturing end price has increased significantly, and the industry has crossed the “parity Internet access”. However, the unbalanced output of new energy leads to the prominent contradiction between the increasing proportion of new energy and the weak consumption capacity. Whether it is the national top-level design, the policies issued by various provinces, or the development process of overseas new energy, supporting energy storage is an important means to solve this problem at present. The development of new energy has also stepped from “new energy parity online” to “new energy + energy storage parity online”.
The profit of manufacturing industry will be postponed to the cost increase of operators, and the growth rate of energy storage industry in 2023 may exceed that in 2022. Under the assumption that the proportion of new energy supporting energy storage is increased from about 1% to about 15%, we calculate that the installed capacity of global electrochemical energy storage may reach 200gwh in 2025, corresponding to more than 70% of gagr in 2021-2025. It is a rare track with high growth and sustainable dual attributes. Affected by tight chip supply and high cell prices in 2022, the market is worried about the profitability and supply chain guarantee ability of the energy storage industry. However, from the current point of view, there may be two major changes in the industry in 2023. First, the tight supply of chips and cells will be greatly alleviated; Second, the capacity of the new energy industry represented by photovoltaic is fully abundant, the profits of the manufacturing industry will be transmitted to the operators, the rate of return of the operators is expected to increase significantly, and there is also a greater driving force to increase the investment of profits to the cost items represented by energy storage.
The demand is booming, and the energy storage business revenue of many companies is expected to grow rapidly in 2022. According to the industrial research, first, there will be strong demand in 2022, showing a double boom in China and overseas. The energy storage business of most companies is expected to grow rapidly, and they are more optimistic about 2023; Second, the industrial and commercial capacity of Chinese enterprises and the downstream supporting willingness of large power grid side projects are strong; Third, the rise of “independent energy storage” and other modes has accelerated the development of the industry in a richer and diversified way; Fourth, there are many participants, whether batteries or equipment, who cut into the energy storage track across industries and products, and there will be more changes and expectations for industry participants; Fifth: enterprises have a large proportion of sales commission and accelerate the layout; Sixth: Overseas profitability is much better than China, and the advance conditions are better.
Pay attention to the pattern and change in 2021, and order and expansion in 2022. 2021 is the first year of China’s energy storage. The order volume is based on the fourth quarter. The market pays attention to the industrial pattern and technological changes. 2022 is the year of large-scale orders for energy storage, and the enterprises that take the lead in obtaining orders are expected to occupy the first mover advantage. Therefore, we should pay more attention to enterprises with order acquisition ability and scale expansion ability, and be able to meet the further expansion of the market in 2023. For different links, the focus is as follows: the battery link looks at supply and transformation, the equipment link looks at channels and supply chain guarantee, the supporting link looks at pattern and order fulfillment, and the integration link looks at funds and channels.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to focus on battery transformation Enterprises: Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) ; Equipment manufacturer: Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) ; Integrators: Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , East Group Co.Ltd(300376) etc; Supporting links: Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) .
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as expected, the price of raw materials continues to be high, suppressing demand, intensifying industry competition, etc
