Key investment points
Investment strategy: this week, coal prices continued to rise, approaching the Spring Festival holiday, coupled with the completion of the supply guarantee task, some coal mines stopped production and the supply side tightened slightly; Chemical, coking and other terminal enterprises began to replenish their warehouses in stages before the Spring Festival, and the demand picked up, providing support for the rise of coal prices. Recently, the Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia issued the latest announcement, saying that after confirming the completion of China’s market obligation (DMO), 37 coal ships will be released as soon as possible, with a coal load of about 1.8 million tons, of which 17 will be sent to China, accounting for 46% of the total. With the completion of DMO of Indonesian coal enterprises, it is expected that the international coal supply will improve, We still need to pay attention to the follow-up measures of the Indonesian government. In the medium and long term, under the background of lack of planned investment, the constraints on the coal supply side are strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. The increase of the benchmark price of the annual long-term association also ensures the ability of the industry to maintain high profitability. Under the dual carbon goal, coal enterprises urgently need to transform, invest in energy Yankuang, Shenhua, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) and others mainly focus on new energy operation and hydrogen energy. The coal industry has the advantages of strong cash flow and rich land resources in new energy operation, and has the ability and willingness. The transformation of new energy direction is conducive to improving the overall sector valuation level (at present, the PE valuation is 5-6 times), Coal assets need to be repriced and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Thermal coal stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of thermal coal: with the tightening of supply and the recovery of phased demand, coal prices continued to rise. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 945 yuan / ton, up 115 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, continuing the rise. In terms of supply, near the Spring Festival, some small mines stopped production and had holidays. After the completion of the supply guarantee task of some coal mines in Shanxi, the output decreased and the supply tightened slightly; The downstream replenishment is active, the queue of hauling vehicles is common, and the pit mouth price has increased. In terms of import, China’s coal import transaction has stalled; According to the importer, Indonesia has successively released 37 ships with a DMO performance rate of 100% to leave the port, and the remaining ships may be released at the end of the month or later. In terms of demand, most power plants have high inventory and postpone procurement. However, due to the repeated epidemic, some regions advocate local Spring Festival, and some power plants actively raise the warehouse to meet the later power demand. Recently, it is mainly the phased replenishment demand of chemical, coking and other terminal enterprises before the Spring Festival. On the whole, the coal supply has tightened slightly this week, and the export restrictions of Indonesia have not changed substantially. In addition, the staged recovery of replenishment demand provides strong support for coal prices. Follow up attention will be paid to the demand in the peak season and the arrangement of Indonesia.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: the price of international coking coal has risen sharply, and the willingness of downstream replenishment is still strong. The price of mainstream coking coal rose this week, and the price (including tax) of Shanxi main coking coal warehouse in Jingtang Port was increased by 2830 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the production of coal mines in the main producing areas was basically stable this week, and the Spring Festival was approaching. Private coal mines in some areas began to limit production considering that they would stop production on holiday, and the coal price in the producing areas continued to rise; In terms of import, the price of international coking coal rose sharply; The epidemic situation in Mongolia has become more severe again, and the number of port clearance has fluctuated at a low level, but there is a small increase compared with the previous period. Ganqi Maodu port has been cleared for 4 days, with an average daily clearance of 98 vehicles (mom + 11), and the available resources are limited. In terms of demand, the resumption of production of blast furnace is in good condition and the willingness to replenish the warehouse is strong. Considering that the epidemic situation may affect logistics and transportation, the raw material reserve of coke enterprises is more than that in previous years. On the whole, China’s coking coal market is strong, the supply is still tight, and the purchase enthusiasm is not reduced, which supports the rise of coal prices. Follow up attention will be paid to the changes of shutdown and replenishment demand in winter and Spring Festival.
Summary and Prospect of coke: the supply of coke enterprises is still tight, and steel mills are willing to replenish stocks. As of January 14, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3060 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, and the national average profit per ton of coke was about 218 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the fourth round of coke price rise landed. With the recovery of coke enterprises’ profits and the relaxation of environmental protection inspection in some areas, the start-up of coke enterprises picked up slightly, but the overall impact was limited. It was difficult for coke enterprises in Shaanxi and Northwest China to purchase raw coal and the supply increment was weak. In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream steel mills has rebounded significantly, but the epidemic has affected the tight transportation capacity, the arrival of steel mills is poor, the inventory is running at a low level, the steel mills have strong rigid demand and strong willingness to replenish inventory. On the whole, the coke supply is tight, the demand of steel mills is strong, and the market continues to be strong. Follow up attention will be paid to the transportation situation under the epidemic situation and the production restriction policy of the Winter Olympic Games.
Power coal: the port coal price rises and the port inventory decreases. (1) As of January 14, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 945 yuan / ton, up 115 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of January 13, the price of power coal in Newcastle was US $216.64/ton, up 15.6% week on week. (3) As of January 14, the railway transfer in volume of Qinhuangdao port was 400000 tons, with a decrease of 80000 tons compared with the week on month. (4) As of January 14, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.05 million tons, with a decrease of 440000 tons on a weekly basis; The coal inventory in the Yangtze River Estuary was 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 10000 tons on a weekly basis.
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China has risen, and the inventory of coking plants has increased month on month. (1) As of January 14, the price increase (including tax) of Shanxi main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port was 2830 yuan / ton, up 230 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of January 13, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was US $423.50/ton, up 8.45% on a weekly basis. (3) As of January 14, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 12.8858 million tons, an increase of 1.085 million tons on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price rose month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant increased. (1) As of January 14, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 3060 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of January 14, the coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 74.29%, with a week on week increase of 2.10%. (3) As of December 24, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, with a decrease of 0.42% on a weekly basis. (4) As of January 14, the total coke inventory of three types of coking enterprises (production capacity 2 million tons) was 802800 tons, with a decrease of 28600 tons around the ring.
Review of industry highlights: (1) coal industry in Shaanxi Province in 2022 Medium and long-term power contracts have been signed (2) Jiangsu’s power consumption will exceed 700 billion kwh for the first time in 2021 (3) nearly half of the list of 37 coal ships released by Indonesia will be sent to China (4) the general office of the State Council: promote the green and low-carbon transformation of transportation in the main coal producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia (5) Mongolia exported 491800 tons of coal to China in December, down 65.36% month on month
Risk tip: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Coal import impact risk.
