Market review: as of January 14, 2022, Shenwan auto sector rose 1.39% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.37 percentage points, ranking fourth among Shenwan’s 31 industries. Among the five sub sectors of Shenwan automobile industry, auto parts, motorcycles and other two sub sectors rose, while the other sub sectors fell. The specific performance is as follows: Auto Parts rose by 2.98%, motorcycles and others rose by 0.22%, automotive services fell by 0.39%, passenger cars fell by 0.46% and commercial vehicles fell by 1.79%. The top three companies with weekly growth were Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , up 35.08%, 28.05% and 27.81% respectively. The top three companies with weekly declines were Zotye Automobile Co.Ltd(000980) , Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) , Yangzhou Yaxingmotor Coach Co.Ltd(600213) , with declines of 18.59%, 14.21% and 14.10% respectively. In terms of valuation, as of January 14, the pettm of Shenwan automobile sector was 30 times, at the quantile of 86.47% in recent five years and 92.27% in recent ten years; In terms of sub sectors, the pettm of automobile service sector is 19 times, that of auto parts sector is 29 times, that of passenger car sector is 37 times, and that of commercial vehicle sector is 23 times.
Key industrial news: 1. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in December, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.907 million and 2.786 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 10.5% respectively, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. In 2021, 26.082 million and 26.275 million vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 3.8% respectively, ending the downward trend for three consecutive years. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. The cumulative sales of Chinese brand passenger cars were 9.543 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and the market share reached 44.4%, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year. 2. China Automobile Association: China’s auto market will continue to grow in 2022. In 2022, China’s total auto sales are expected to reach 27.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%. Among them, there were 23 million passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 7%; 4.5 million commercial vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; New energy vehicles will reach 5 million, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%.
Auto industry weekly view: the auto sector rebounded this week, and the auto parts sub sector led the rise. China Automobile Association released the automobile production and sales data in December 2021 this week. With the continuous improvement of chip supply and the peak sales season, the automobile production and sales volume achieved double-digit month on month growth in December, and has achieved month on month growth for four consecutive months, which is in line with expectations. The follow-up inventory replenishment trend appears, which will drive the demand of parts and components to continue to repair. The new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy driven to market driven, and is expected to maintain a high growth momentum in 2022. In addition, the state has promoted the “3 + 2” fuel cell vehicle demonstration pattern and accelerated the development of fuel cell vehicle industry. It is suggested to focus on global competitiveness, actively transform to electric intelligence, and benefit from the elasticity of demand replenishment after improved chip supply: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (603596), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) (300258).
Risk tip: chip shortage exceeds expectations, automobile production and sales are lower than expectations, raw material prices rise sharply, competition intensifies, trade friction, etc.
