Key investment points:
Market review. As of January 14, 2022, the basic chemical industry of Shenwan fell by 0.05% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.93 percentage points and ranking seventh among the 31 industries of Shenwan.
As for the seven sub sectors of Shenwan basic chemical industry, according to the performance of the recent week, the increase order is plastics (+ 1.74%), agrochemical products (+ 0.94%), rubber (+ 0.16%), non-metallic materials (+ 0.09%), chemical raw materials (- 0.26%), chemical fiber (- 0.79%) and chemical products (- 0.87%).
Among the top gainers this week, Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Shandongsino-Agriunitedbiotechnologyco.Ltd(003042) and Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) performed best, with increases of 81.53%, 24.17% and 23.01% respectively. Among the stocks with the highest decline this week, Jiangsu Chengxing Phosph-Chemical Co.Ltd(600078) , Zangger mining and Nanjing Red Sun Co.Ltd(000525) performed the worst, with declines of – 17.04%, – 10.38% and – 10.13% respectively.
Rise and fall of chemical products: among the chemical products mainly tracked, the products with the top five price increases this week are butadiene (+ 42.86%), aniline (+ 12.50%), natural gas (+ 7.45%), coke (+ 7.31%), epichlorohydrin (+ 6.94%), and the products with the top five price decreases are nitric acid (- 29.17%), yellow phosphorus (- 13.24%), BDO (- 10.23%), spandex (- 5.83%) Soft foam polyether (- 5.13%).
Weekly view of basic chemical industry: the rise in international crude oil futures prices this week is mainly due to the EIA raising the expected price of European and American crude oil futures in 2022 at the beginning of the week, and the continuous decline of US crude oil inventories. The central economic work conference at the end of 2021 made it clear that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control, and create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. In this regard, it is expected that the expansion of enterprises limited by energy consumption indicators will be good. We can pay attention to industry leading enterprises Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . In addition, the downstream industries of pesticides, tires, modified plastics and sweeteners can continue to pay attention. Under the dual carbon target, it is suggested to continue to focus on new energy upstream chemical materials with high demand growth certainty, such as PVDF, photovoltaic EVA particles, etc. Key target concerns:
Longtou white horse: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (600309), Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (600426), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493)
Pesticide: Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) (600486)
Tires: Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) (601966), Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) (002984), and Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) (601058)
Modified plastics: Kingfa Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(600143) (600143), Shanghai Pret Composites Co.Ltd(002324) (002324)
Sweetener: Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
\u3000\u3000PVDF： Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) （300343）
PV EVA: Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301)
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Product price and price difference fall; Intensified industry competition, etc.
