Precious metals: the CPI of the United States has reached a new high, and the price of gold is much shorter and the mood is strong. ① Nominal interest rate: during the week, the interest rate of ten-year US bonds rose from 1.76% to 1.78%, another periodic high. At the hearing, fed director brennard stressed that reducing inflation is the primary task of the Fed, saying that the Fed will use “powerful” tools to reduce inflation and be open to raising interest rates in March; Powell also stated that he would not let the tightening of policies lead to economic recession. His tone was partial to doves and market sentiment eased somewhat; ② Inflation expectation: this week, the implied inflation in the US bond market decreased to 2.44% from 2.48%, and the real interest rate increased to – 0.66% from – 0.72% during the week. The annual rate of us CPI without quarterly adjustment in December was 7%, which continued to be higher than the previous value of 6.8%. The expectation that inflation will continue to rise has been verified, the short and long mood of gold has rebounded, and the gold price rose rapidly at the beginning of the week; Global metal inventories are at a low level, commodity prices are difficult to see a sharp decline, and there is strong sentiment in the gold market. However, once inflation continues to rise by more than 7%, the Fed’s tightening policy still has room to increase. If inflation turns substantially, the gold decline channel will be opened.
Base metals: spot trading generally cooled at the end of the year, and the inventory inflection point became a key factor. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, China’s credit and social finance in December were lower than expected. Under the pressure of steady growth, the loose expectation in the future will be further strengthened to boost commodity prices; The annual rate of us CPI without quarterly adjustment in December was 7%, which continued to be higher than the previous value of 6.8%. The dollar fell sharply during the session, and the easing of bad mood led to the general rise of metal prices; ② In terms of supply, SMM statistics show that in December, SMM China’s electrolytic copper output was 870300 tons, a month on month increase of 5.38% and a year-on-year increase of 0.97%. At the end of the year, the maintenance of copper smelters came to an end. At the same time, some smelters quickly recovered from the accident, superimposing the effect of catching up with production at the end of the year. In December, China’s electrolytic copper output far exceeded market expectations, reaching a new high since the second half of the year. The output is expected to remain high in January 2022; ③ In terms of demand, the global copper Inventory (China social Treasury (including SHFE) + bonded + LME + Comex exchange) was 395400 tons, an increase of 20700 tons month on month. Among them, China’s social inventory was 4800 tons, the bonded area accumulated 20000 tons, LME accumulated 1500 tons, Comex copper accumulated 4000 tons, and the inventory increased by 12000 tons in the previous period. According to SMM survey data, the operating rate of copper pipe enterprises in December was 86.91%, up 1.73 percentage points month on month and 4.85 percentage points year-on-year. At the end of the year, home appliance orders continued to rise seasonally. In the spot market, the sharp rise in copper prices in the first half of the week restrained downstream buying. At the end of the year, China’s over expected destocking turned the monthly basis into a premium structure, and the spot quotation fell to the discount level; The dismal import transactions at the end of the year continued to increase the inventory in the bonded area, and the atmosphere before the festival became stronger and stronger. Overall, China’s destocking and contract to back structure suggest that the spot market is bullish, inflation remains high, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates is becoming clearer, and the copper price remains strong. (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: 30400 tons to 1231800 tons went to the stock exchange on Wednesday, including 25300 tons to 891600 tons of LME inventory in a single week and 4300 tons to 310600 tons of SHFE inventory in a single week. LME is the main factor for the decline of inventory in global exchanges this week. According to Baichuan Yingfu, China’s social Treasury went to 41900 tons to 759900 tons this week, a decrease of 3100 tons over the same period last year; ② In terms of cost, alumina decreased by 0.21% from 2823 yuan / ton to 2817 yuan / ton during the week, and the profit level of single ton electrolytic aluminum (self owned power plant) increased by 202 yuan / ton to 4684 yuan / ton during the week; ③ In terms of supply, the resumption of production in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other regions is at a slow pace. According to the statistics of Baichuan, the new re production capacity was about 65000 tons in the week, and the rate of re production showed a downward trend; ④ Demand: most downstream enterprises have completed replenishment before the festival, and their overall willingness to purchase is low. According to Mysteel data, last week, China’s electrolytic aluminum delivery fell by 16000 tons to 142000 tons, and 6063 aluminum rod delivery fell by 7100 tons to 38300 tons in the same period. It is speculated that the current decline in China’s electrolytic aluminum inventory is mainly due to the lower than expected warehousing of upstream aluminum ingots. As the current inventory level is low and the market is more sensitive to the apparent inventory level, the market or speculative funds interfere with the actual inventory, and the appropriate return of inventory to the accumulation trend is still the focus of the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China nonferrous metals mining, Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Energy metals: the pattern of supply exceeding demand continues, and the rising cost accelerates the upward trend of energy metal prices. (1) Lithium: in 2021, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles exceeded 3.5 million, the demand exceeded expectations and the seasonal supply reduction. At present, the spot circulation is small, and the difficulty of lithium salt procurement is upgraded. During the week, the battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 350000 yuan / ton to 335400 yuan / ton, which is close to 350000 yuan. The profit margin of lithium salt manufacturers continues to improve; (2) Nickel: the price of nickel bean raw materials is in line. The price of battery grade nickel sulfate rebounded again this week. The purchasing demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchasing enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: there is a shortage of cobalt intermediates in China and the price remains high; The cobalt salt spot market is dominated by inquiry, and the firm offer transaction is limited. The year is approaching, and the market activity may be further reduced. However, driven by the cost side, the cobalt salt price may continue to rise slightly. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
