This week (2022.1.10-2022.1.14), the building materials sector (SW) rose 2.33%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose – 1.65%, and the excess return was 3.98%. This week, the net capital inflow of the building materials sector (SW) was -3.052 billion yuan.
[Zhou viewpoint]
In terms of bulk commodities, the previous central economic work conference had a clearer attitude towards steady growth, and proposed to “ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure” and “moderately advance infrastructure investment”. The expectations of steady growth and credit easing were further enhanced, and the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. In the short-term off-season, the terminal demand is still weak, but with the implementation of medium-term structural wide credit, the counter cyclical demand represented by cement is expected to stabilize and recover, supporting the quarterly profit center. Under the “double carbon” goal, the supply side may maintain strict constraints on normalization, medium and long-term favorable sector profit expectations and valuation repair. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the marginal change of demand and the catalysis of macro policies. Cement sector and glass fiber sector are recommended.
1. Cement sector: the expectation of broad credit and stable growth continues to rise, and the sector is expected to start a boom and valuation upward cycle. The high-frequency shipment data reflects that the short-term terminal demand has not been improved in a trend, but the industry supply is still subject to certain constraints under the dual carbon policy, and the price is expected to be stable. In the medium term, the stable growth of broad credit is expected to rise. With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the growth rate of new real estate construction, construction and sales continues to be under pressure. In the first half of the year, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. In the follow-up, we can focus on the catalysis of macro policies and the verification of the stabilization and repair of start-up demand in spring. The recommended performance is highly deterministic. There are Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with market integration in Northeast and North China and great business elasticity.
2. Glass sector: under the short-term weak demand, the price has dropped and the inventory has rebounded. It is necessary to continue to observe the toughness of demand in the future. After the sharp drop in prices in the early stage, the social inventory has been at a very low level, and the expectation of downward price has also eased; The rapid decline in prices worsens the profits of some production lines to a low level, which is expected to accelerate their cold repair process and bring the expectation of improving the margin of supply and demand. The sustainability of subsequent price stabilization and recovery needs to be driven by terminal demand or supply side factors. In the medium term, the glass supply side has entered a new stage and is expected to replicate the profit curve of the cement industry after 2018. With the strong constraint on the total supply after the tightening of industrial policy constraints, the supply side of float glass has gradually transitioned to a stage similar to that after 2017. The medium and long-term supply and demand of the industry has maintained a tight balance. In the stock competition, the industry boom center is expected to be significantly improved, and the volatility is expected to be significantly improved. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase of fuel cost under the transformation of coal to gas in the original coal-fired production line in the north is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (the extension of industrial chains such as deep processing, electronics, medicine and photovoltaic glass is quite bright, and the dividend rate is high), CSG a (photovoltaic glass is vigorously expanded, and electronic glass ushers in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
3. The glass fiber sector, the global economic boom and supply chain support the export demand to maintain a high level, superimpose the supply release constraints and other factors, and the short-term tight balance between supply and demand is difficult to break quickly. Under the double carbon target, the installed capacity of wind power in the medium term increased significantly compared with that during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The unit consumption and standard of glass fiber increased under the trend of superimposing large blades, which is expected to boost the medium and long-term demand. We judge that the high boom of medium and high-end categories is sustainable. After the preliminary adjustment, the relative valuation of the sector has gradually become cost-effective. If the prosperity of downstream industries is catalyzed and the superimposed profit elasticity is realized beyond expectations, the sector is expected to usher in repair. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (the 14th five year plan is established, and the sharing of excess profits promotes high-quality development), Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
In terms of consumption of building materials, according to the short-term real estate data, the new construction and sales remain weak, and the completion remains resilient. In the follow-up, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected. On the profit side, the pressure on the cost side is expected to ease with the price transmission, product structure adjustment and raw material price decline; At the valuation level, most consumer building materials targets are already in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continue to track the marginal changes of policies. Previously, the central economic work conference maintained the expression of “no speculation in housing”, and also proposed to support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. The policy is back to urban implementation, and it is expected that all localities will implement purchase restriction Policies such as loan restrictions will be relaxed accordingly; At the same time, it is proposed to “promote the construction of affordable housing”. It is expected that the construction of affordable housing in the future is expected to accelerate, and the real estate policy is expected to be phased marginal easing under the tone of maintaining stability, and pay attention to the opportunities for valuation and repair of building materials in the post real estate cycle; From the perspective of medium and long-term industry development trend, we are still optimistic about the share improvement and growth space of high-quality subdivision leaders. In terms of further development space and cash flow balance, the real estate market returns to a reasonable scale in the medium and long term. In addition to the fast concentrated large B project market, the old scattered small B project market provides a more long-term source of share improvement. In the medium and long term, we believe that quality growth is still the most important quality. In the next few years, under the pressure of liquidity tightening and three red lines, how to alleviate the contradiction between cash flow and income growth; Under the pressure of gradually blurring industry boundaries and constantly shifting customer concerns, how to improve the long-term competitiveness of business models is an important proposition faced by enterprises:
1) a growing leader in engineering building materials, especially the company that has established a small b customer development and multi category sales system in the sinking market. Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range, and Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) are recommended.
2) the export chain still maintains a high outlook. Previously, export enterprises were affected by the rising cost of raw materials and exchange rate fluctuations, the profitability was under pressure, and the stock price generally callback. With the weakening of price transmission, raw material fluctuations and the easing of shipping, it is expected to enter the profit recovery period. It is suggested to pay attention to the PVC floor leader Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) with strong demand and continuous penetration of categories, And Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) with high external demand and bright demand in downstream segments.
3) recommend Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) for revaluation varieties with stable profits and high cash flow.
[weekly data of industry segments]
1. This week, the national cement market price continued to fall, with a week-on-week ratio of – 1.4%. Prices fell mainly in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangxi, Hainan and Guizhou, with a week on week ratio of – 30-50 yuan / ton. In mid January, as the Spring Festival approached, workers returned home one after another, the operating rate of the project and mixing plant continued to decline, and the cement price continued to decline, which was in line with expectations.
The average price of cement market in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 549 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 91 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 529 yuan / ton, with a weekly comparison of – 5 yuan / ton and a year-on-year increase of + 6 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the Yangtze River Basin is 511 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of – 4 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 14 yuan / ton; The average price of cement market in Guangdong and Guangxi is 485 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of – 30 yuan / ton and a year-on-year increase of + 10 yuan / ton.
Cement inventory in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 51.3%, with a week-on-week ratio of + 2%; The cement inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin was 56.8%, with a week-on-week ratio of – 2%; The inventory in the Yangtze River Basin was 60.6%, with a week on week ratio of – 2%; The inventory of Guangdong and Guangdong regions was 60.3%, with a week-on-week ratio of – 4%.
2. Glass: the average price of the original float white glass in China this week was 2064.9 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of – 42.7 yuan / ton and a year-on-year ratio of – 241.6 yuan / ton. The original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces in China was 38.3 million heavy boxes, with a week-on-week increase of + 640000 heavy boxes and a year-on-year increase of + 20.66 million heavy boxes.
3. Glass fiber: Taishan Glass Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces alkali free roving of various specifications. At present, 16 tank kiln production lines are in production, with an annual production capacity of 905000 tons. The manufacturer’s overall shipment is stable within the month, the reserved orders are acceptable, the wind power demand is supported, and the manufacturer’s intention to support the price in the short term is high. There is not much supply of individual composite yarn products. Recently, the quotation of glass fiber yarn from manufacturers is temporarily stable. The manufacturer’s external ex factory prices in the northern market are as follows: 2400tex jet yarn is quoted at 10000 yuan / ton, 2400tex SMC yarn at 9100 yuan / ton, 2400tex winding yarn at 6400 yuan / ton, thermoplastic direct yarn at 7100-7200 yuan / ton, 2400tex felt yarn / sheet yarn at 9700 yuan / ton. Electronic yarn: Taishan glass fiber Zoucheng Co., Ltd. mainly produces tank kiln electronic yarn. At present, three electronic tank kiln lines are normally produced, with an annual output of about 65000 tons. The main products include G75, G37, G150, e225, D450 and other models. G37 is basically used by itself. Recently, the downstream demand is slightly general. Today, the quotation of the manufacturer’s electronic yarn G75 is significantly reduced. Now the mainstream quotation is about 12000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price including tax of class a products is slightly different from that of different customers. The actual transaction is according to the contract, but the manufacturer has few sources of goods for export and has a large self consumption. Wooden pallet packaging and plastic pipe recycling, with a time limit of 3 months. The main shipping areas are Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang. At present, the production and marketing of China’s electronic cloth (7628 cloth) market is slightly general. Now the mainstream quotation is about 5.5 yuan / m, and the actual transaction is according to the contract.
Risk tip: repeated macro policies and sharp depreciation of exchange rate.
