Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); Titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), spandex and polyurethane ( Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ), food additives ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticides ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) ), compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and trade risk on oil price. Recommend excellent private refining enterprises ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ) to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter large-scale refining and layout C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking; Follow Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas rose, LNG gas fell and coal price rose; C4. The price of some chemical fiber products increased.
This week, China's chemical price index CCPI + 1.9%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 5.3%, imported LPG + 4.2%, domestic LNG - 11.8%, bituminous coal + 12.2%.
At the raw material end, the prices of C4 products increased; On the product side, the prices of some chemical fiber products rose, while the prices of some phosphorus chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, vitamins and amino acids fell.
Oil prices rose this week, local supply concerns eased slightly, and the tight supply of natural gas in Europe continued. This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 81.8 to 86.1 US dollars / barrel (up 5.3%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 78.9 to 83.8 US dollars / barrel (up 6.2%); The US commercial crude oil inventory was 413 million barrels (Mom - 1.1%), and the number of US crude oil wells was 492 (mom + 2.3%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, there have been no new changes in the supply of OPEC +, the United States and Iran recently, while the output lost by Kazakhstan and Libya due to various factors has basically recovered. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, recently, the number of new covid-19 in a single day in the world has risen sharply, and the epidemic situation is still severe. However, there is no great panic in the market, some economic data are still good, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States continues to decline, and the shortage of natural gas supply in Europe continues. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the expectation that the Federal Reserve may start raising interest rates as soon as March is enhanced, but the official has no clear landing plan, the dollar has not been continuously strengthened, and it is not all bad impact on oil prices. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, although the Iranian side is full of sincerity in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, the United States has never made a positive statement. It is expected that the lifting of sanctions is still not easy and good.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: this week (1.06 - 1.12), European and American natural gas collectively rose, NBP was + 1.707%, TTF was + 1.73%, HH was + 11.87%, AECO was + 9.42%. In terms of spot, it goes in the same direction as futures, and HH spot is + 10.28% month on month; Canada AECO spot chain was + 16.74%, and Europe TTF spot chain was + 11.34%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 9994 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of - 4.00%. The average sales price at the terminal was 5295 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of + 70 yuan / ton (+ 1.34%). Inventory tracking: according to EIA data, as of January 7, the U.S. natural gas inventory was 3016 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of - 179 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of - 5.6%, year-on-year ratio of - 6.20%), still lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of January 7, the European natural gas inventory was 1993 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of - 137.1 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of - 6.44%, year-on-year ratio of - 25.41%). China's price: this week, the price of China's main LNG producing areas fell slightly. As of January 13, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 4507 yuan / ton, compared with - 7.76% last week; The prices of major LNG consuming places have decreased simultaneously. As of January 13, the average price of major LNG consuming places was about 5177 yuan / ton, down - 1.82% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 5226 yuan / ton, down from - 2.26% last week.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are liquid chlorine + 50%, butadiene + 45%, chloroform + 11%, dimethylcyclosiloxane (DMC) + 11%, dimethyl ether + 11%, isobutene + 9%, NPG + 8%, epichlorohydrin + 7%, dimethyl carbonate DMC + 7%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are bdo-10%, chloroacetic acid-9%, acetamiprid-9%, HDI (trimer) - 9%, phosphorus trichloride-9%, phosphoric acid-8%, tryptophan-7% and vitamin d3-7%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to the photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon - 0.2%, trichlorosilane flat, soda ash (light - 5%, heavy - 4%), vinyl acetate - 6%, EVA (photovoltaic grade) equal.
Chemicals related to the lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid - 8%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 11%, battery grade + 10%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, and lithium hexafluorophosphate is the same.
The recovery of external mining in Luxi area has reduced the supply in some areas, and the price of liquid chlorine has increased.
Liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 50.0% to 1500 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, enterprises in Luxi have resumed external mining, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, there are large plants in Shandong to reduce the load, chlor alkali enterprises in Hebei to operate normally, maintenance enterprises in Jiangxi to resume operation, enterprises in southwest Chongqing to maintain, chlor alkali plants of enterprises in other regions to start normally, and some areas of liquid chlorine supply to reduce.
There is still rigid demand in the synthetic rubber market, the upward external price boosted the mentality, and the price of butadiene increased.
Butadiene (East China) rose 45.1% to 5950 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, there is still rigid demand in China's synthetic rubber market; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, due to the shortage of spot supply of butadiene caused by the reduction of steam cracking unit in Korea, the price of the outer disk has increased, and the price of mainstream suppliers has further plans to increase. In terms of the unit, the extraction unit with a capacity of 127000 T / a of Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical has been shut down for maintenance since December 4, and it is expected to restart around January 20, 2022, The 160000 T / a unit of Zhenhai Refining and chemical phase II was put into operation in January 2022, and the products were output one after another.
The cost support was strong, the downstream operation increased, and the price of chloroform increased.
Chloroform (East China) rose 11.1% to 5500 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, methanol (East China) rose 2.8% to 2735 yuan / ton and liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 50.0% to 1500 yuan / ton this week, forming a strong cost support; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the new quota of refrigerant has been issued, R22 manufacturer starts a new production cycle, and the start-up is improved, resulting in good demand; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current supply of chloroform is normal and the market supply is sufficient.
The enterprise basically has no inventory, and the shortage of goods is still, pushing up the price of silicone DMC.
Methylcyclosiloxane (DMC) (East China) rose 11.1% to 30000 yuan / ton on Tuesday. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, most downstream factories complete the goods preparation operation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, due to the previous centralized replenishment, the silicone enterprise has basically no inventory and still focuses on the delivery of early orders. At present, the delivery date is mostly from the end of January to the middle of February, and the supply is still in short supply.
Downstream market entry was active, and traders replenished before the festival to support the price of dimethyl ether.
Methyl ether (Henan) rose 10.8% to 4100 yuan / ton on Tuesday. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current downstream market entry mentality continues to be positive. Traders fear that the epidemic situation will worsen again before the Spring Festival, affecting transportation, and have replenished goods before the festival in advance, forming a favorable demand side; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the operating rate of dimethyl ether has increased on a weekly basis. Among the 325000 ton dimethyl ether units in Hebei Jichun, 200000 ton units have been shut down for a long time, 125000 ton units have been shut down at 1.9 and restarted at 1.10. Now, in low load production, the load of Henan xinlianxin unit has increased, and the capacity of Dezhou shengdeyuan is 200000 ton / year, and the dimethyl ether unit is in full load operation.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation, lower downstream demand than expected, etc.
