Live pigs: the slaughter was accelerated before the festival, and the pig price continued to fall
Investment suggestion: for the pig sector, it is still in a very good configuration window period. The first half of the year is the key period to win excess returns. The fertile sows have been falling continuously since July 2021, of which they have fallen more than expected from October to November. The downward trend of fertile sows is very clear. From historical experience, fertile sows are in a downward relay, In the follow-up, with the intensification of aquaculture losses and the continuous downturn of column filling, the de urbanization will be intensified. The decline of fertile sows every month will be catalyzed by the pig sector. The pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of the pig price is very limited. Factors such as the change of the marketing rhythm of short-term farmers will affect the fluctuation of the pig price. Even if there is a periodic rebound, as long as the loss inventory is cleared, it will continue. In the second half of the year, it is necessary to verify the pig price, but the first half of the year is a safe period. Despite the recent rebound in the pig sector, the current valuation of the sector, especially the leader, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety. Therefore, at present, the pig sector continues to be recommended, focusing on the leading Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , followed by the second tier pig enterprises New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) .
Poultry: continue to recommend yellow chicken sector
Investment suggestion: for yellow chicken, before the festival, the chicken prices around the country highlighted differences and differentiation. The chicken prices in the main sales areas were relatively stable, and the prices in other production areas decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of the yellow chicken industry have maintained a positive trend after the continuous de industrialization of production capacity. And the production capacity has a trend of diffusion from parents to grandparents. On the supply side, it is expected that the contraction trend will continue in 2022, and the marginal improvement on the demand side is expected. The fundamentals are worth looking forward to. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity, the industry concentration is further improved. We continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of Huangji sector, and recommend Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
Dynamic insurance: focus on the growing dynamic insurance leader
Investment suggestions: the reform of the breeding industry has promoted the transformation of the competition pattern of the animal protection industry, accelerated the trend of large-scale breeding, normalized the prevention and control of non plague conditions, significantly raised the industry access threshold with the new GMP certificate, accelerated the industry reform of feed end prohibition and breeding end restriction, and the trend of large-scale breeding enterprises gathering into large-scale animal protection enterprises is becoming more and more obvious; The competition of animal protection enterprises has entered the stage of seedling drug linkage and collaborative promotion of efficient breeding services from the era of single product competition. We are optimistic about Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) with undervalued value and high growth target. We suggest paying attention to Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) .
Planting: 100 million tons of soybeans were imported in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%
Investment suggestions: grain prices remain high and volatile, and seed demand remains high. The revision of the seed law has long been conducive to the improvement of industry concentration and the market share of leading companies. The commercialization of medium – and long-term genetically modified seeds is expected to continue. Be optimistic about Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) and pay attention to Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) .
Feed: the price of mixture continues to rise slightly, and the price of feed raw materials fluctuates at a high level
Investment suggestion: it is expected that the overall feed production and sales will continue to grow in the first half of 2022. The rise in the price of feed raw materials slightly squeezes the gross profit margin of feed processing, but the leading enterprises have a strong ability to transfer costs to downstream breeding plants, and the market share is expected to increase. It is suggested to focus on Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) and Hefeng animal husbandry.
Pets: be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet tracks
Investment suggestion: we believe that China’s pet industry is still in the fundamentals of rapid development. Although the epidemic has led to a decline in the growth rate of China’s pet consumption, we are still optimistic about the development prospect of the pet consumption market in the post epidemic era; With the declining Engel coefficient of pet consumption and the rising trend of pet consumption upgrading, the proportion of consumption in pet diagnosis and treatment, pet supplies, pet nutrition and health care, pet services and other fields is expected to continue to rise in the future. Compared with other market segments, pet food and pet medical have natural advantages. We are optimistic about pet food targets Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) and pet health care and medical related targets Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) .
In terms of industry rating and investment strategy, pig breeding enterprises with strong cost control ability and high growth can resist risks in the downward period. We believe that the next round of poultry boom cycle may precede pigs, while white feather chickens or yellow feather chickens; In terms of seed industry, high grain prices and the promotion of transgenic commercialization will continue to benefit the prosperity of seed industry; In terms of feed, the recovery of pig production capacity will support feed demand; In terms of dynamic insurance, it is in the period of industry reform. With the improvement of industry concentration, the advantages of leading enterprises will be gradually clear; Be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet track. Give the industry a rating of “recommended”.
Risk tips focus on the risk that the company’s performance is lower than expected, the risk of sharp market fluctuation caused by emergencies, the risk of epidemic disease in the breeding industry, the risk of policy uncertainty, the risk of price fluctuation, the risk of extreme weather, etc.
