1. The sector continues to callback, and the prefabricated vegetable track is hot. Food and beverage fell 4.40% this week, 2.77 percentage points lower than the Shanghai Composite Index (- 1.63%). Subdivision sector, each sub sector has varying degrees of decline, other -6.21%, condiment (-5.03%), beer (-4.84%) and Baijiu (-4.71%) decline. The concept stocks of prefabricated dishes increased significantly this week, mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival and repeated epidemic, the hot sales of prefabricated dishes, and the admission layout of many enterprises, which catalyzed the market sentiment. In terms of individual stocks, Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) (69.51%), Gaishi food (35.24%), Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) (32.58%), Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (32.33%), Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) (19.05%), Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) (18.35%) and other pre prepared food related targets rose higher.
2. The prefabricated dishes have the dual catalysis of Spring Festival and epidemic situation, ushering in the tuyere period. This year, many people choose to “celebrate the new year on the spot” during the Spring Festival, and the sales of online and offline prefabricated dishes for new year’s Eve dinner are booming. According to the data of an offline hemamen store in Shenzhen, the sales growth of prefabricated vegetables this year reached more than three digits. According to the person in charge of tmall food’s Prefabricated dishes industry, as of January 10 this year, the sales of prefabricated dishes have doubled, and the most popular dishes are signature dishes and family banquet package products. The chain rate of catering has continued to improve, and new business forms such as takeout and group meals have developed rapidly. The demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement has promoted the penetration of prefabricated dishes at the b-end, the consumption upgrading has superimposed the epidemic catalysis, and the demand at the C-end has been gradually opened. Prefabricated dishes have become one of the fastest growing sub industries of the food industry, and are in the early stage of rapid development, with broad industry space. According to the statistics of ncbd, the market scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetable industry was about 252.7 billion yuan in 2020, and the CAGR from 2015 to 2020 was 31.2%. At present, there are 72000 enterprises related to prefabricated dishes in China, and more than 50% of them were established after 2015. We expect the scale to exceed 400 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound growth rate of 15%.
In the short term, we should pay attention to the risk of overheating, the long-term growth trend is clear, and the stocks that can contribute to the performance are preferred. With strong momentum and low industry threshold, the prefabricated vegetable industry has attracted many types of participants, and the competition pattern is extremely scattered. Participants are mainly divided into five types: 1) professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises: they have been deeply engaged in the industry for many years, understand channel demands, focus more on popular cuisines, and have rich product categories. 2) Agricultural, animal husbandry and Fishery Enterprises: they have the advantages of raw materials and cost, strong quality control and R & D, and can increase the company’s profit after extending to make prefabricated dishes. 3) Traditional quick-frozen Enterprises: have brand awareness, strong ability to create standard products, channel distribution and cold chain logistics. 4) Catering enterprises: offline stores have a strong brand foundation, mostly their own signature dishes or hard dishes, and the dishes have a high degree of reduction. 5) Retail enterprises: they have accumulated deep consumer preference big data to help precision marketing. We believe that traditional quick-frozen food enterprises are more likely to become national leaders and give full play to the potential energy of single products. Professional prefabricated vegetable enterprises plough deep into the region and can become small and beautiful enterprises. For upstream agricultural, animal husbandry and aquatic products enterprises, prefabricated dishes are a rare window of business transformation. If the product power advantage is prominent and the b-end and C-end distribution channels are quickly established, it is possible to produce a dark horse enterprise. However, the prefabricated food industry is in its infancy and may face the risk of overheating in the short term. Some listed companies have just started to set foot in the prefabricated food industry, and their contribution to the performance is not high in a short time. At present, it is in the leading stage of market expectation. It is recommended to focus on Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) in combination with the industry trend, have a certain brand foundation, and quickly establish BC end distribution channels. In the future, the prefabricated vegetable business can form a certain number of stocks. It is recommended to focus on Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) . At the same time, you can pay attention to Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Longda food, Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) .
3, consumption habits quietly changed, Baijiu busy season moving gradually gradually extended and the actual sales season, from now on. Recently, the epidemic situation in many places “broke out in scattered places”, the feedback from mobile sales channels during the Spring Festival is “flat”, and the mood in the capital market has cooled down. But we think that in recent years, the consumption habits of Spring Festival are very high. Consumers often buy products before gifts and drinks. Baijiu consumption is more and more popular, and the convenience of consumption (the increase of convenience of physical commerce and online shopping in spring) makes the consumption of liquor more dispersed in the peak season. The peak season starts later (the peak season gradually changes from the previous centralized purchase of 2-3 weeks before the festival to the terminal mobile sales around 10 days before the festival, and the heat will continue until about the 15th day of the first month). The time of peak season mobile sales moves back and extends. Therefore, we expect that the actual peak season of dynamic sales and shipment in the industry has just begun, and the preliminary conclusion can be obtained only when the real demand and dynamic sales are at least close to the Spring Festival. There is no need to worry too much at present.
4, epidemic prevention and control is becoming more stringent. Q1 Baijiu market will be differentiated in some provinces, but the industry fundamentals remain stable. For Baijiu enterprises, the Spring Festival accounts for a relatively high proportion of annual sales volume, and the tightness of epidemic prevention and control will lead to the lack of consumption scenes in some provinces during the Spring Festival, thus affecting their Spring Festival sales. Henan has always been a major Baijiu consumption province. The national famous liquor and local strong brands are all in this layout. Under the influence of the epidemic, some of the liquor companies with a higher market share in Henan will be affected. However, other consumption provinces such as Sichuan, Anhui and Jiangsu are less affected by the epidemic. Baijiu enterprises are expected to differentiate in the first quarter. However, the impact of outbreaks in Henan and other markets on the industry as a whole is limited. At present, the fundamentals of the sector are still stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market dynamic sales will continue to improve; The recent sector correction also makes some targets enter the value layout range. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , regional sub high-end leaders (such as Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) ) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) .
5. Update of industry and company views
(1) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : continuous optimization in 2021, and the performance is expected to fall below the upper limit of the forecast interval. The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021, and it is expected to achieve an annual operating revenue of 6.3-6.5 billion yuan (with an increase of 23-27%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.9-2.1 billion (with an increase of 21-34%). In 2021, the company’s structure continues to be optimized, the sales revenue has achieved steady growth, and the product and regional structure continue to be optimized. Among them, the growth rate of the company’s special a + product revenue is expected to exceed 35%, accounting for about 65% of the company’s revenue; In the past three quarters, the company’s traditional strong markets such as Huai’an and Nanjing continued to grow steadily, while weak markets such as southern Jiangsu, Yancheng and Taizhou also achieved high growth. Based on this, we expect the performance to fall below the upper limit of the forecast range. The company’s product structure is excellent, and will continue to enjoy the secondary high-end capacity expansion bonus in the future. The good landing of equity incentives will also bring catalysis. We continue to be optimistic about the future growth of the company.
(2) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) : the performance meets expectations and the high-end trend remains unchanged. The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021, and it is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 3.15 billion yuan (an increase of about 43% at the same time); The net profit deducted from non parent company was about 2.194 billion yuan (with an increase of about 21%), and the company’s performance basically met expectations. The company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in 2021 was about 897 million yuan (excluding the impact of about 436 million yuan of land compensation confirmed by the company in Q4 in 2021).
The company’s loss in the same period in 2020 was 777 million yuan), and the year-on-year increase in the loss in a single quarter is expected to be due to the increase of cost pressure and the recognition of plant closure expenses. On the whole, in 2021, the company’s product structure will continue to upgrade steadily, the main brand of Tsing beer will continue to grow steadily, and the high-end logic will continue to be fulfilled. It is expected that the annual sales volume will maintain a low single digit growth year-on-year, and the ton price growth will accelerate. In 2022, the price increase of the company’s products will be further implemented, with high performance certainty; If the cost and demand side usher in marginal improvement, the company’s performance elasticity will accelerate the release.
(3) Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) : a one-stop tea and coffee supplier, enriching the matrix of plant-based products. In recent years, the end of vegetable fat industry has benefited from the rapid expansion of new tea drinks in the downstream, and the growth rate of the industry has increased. It is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future. Jiahe is a leading supplier of vegetable fat in China. After years of deep cultivation in the industry, it has accumulated multiple advantages such as excellent products, strong R & D, rapid response to downstream demand and rich customer channel resources, with a market share of 30%. The company’s final fat planting capacity continues to be in full production, and the supply exceeds the demand. The final fat planting business revenue increased by more than 40% in the first three quarters of 2021. The new 120000 ton capacity has been put into operation in January 2022. In the future, with the gradual release of capacity, the final fat planting business is expected to maintain rapid growth. In addition, the company continues to develop coffee and plant-based beverage business. The new freeze-dried coffee powder has been listed. The consumption feedback of oat milk products is good at the local catering end, which is expected to become the second growth curve of the company. At present, the company’s performance is under short-term pressure due to the high cost of raw materials. In the future, if the price of raw materials falls, the performance can show high elasticity. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance inflection point caused by the change of cost side.
6. The key recommendation of stocks is that the Baijiu industry will remain stable and the secondary high end logic will continue to be fulfilled. The dark hour of popular products has passed, and the price increase has brought about marginal improvement in the performance of the sector, so we can choose the best layout. Based on this, we maintain the rating of the food and beverage industry as “recommended”.
Baijiu: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) .
Popular products: Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) etc.
Short term suggestions: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) etc.
7. Risk Tips 1) the recovery of catering channels affected by the epidemic is lower than expected; 2) Macroeconomic fluctuations hinder the pace of consumption upgrading; 3) Industry policy changes lead to increased competition; 4) The price of raw materials has risen sharply; 5) The performance of key recommended companies is less than expected; 6) Food safety incidents, etc.
