I. review and theme of this week:
This week, Shenwan pharmaceutical index rose 2.41%, ranking first in the whole industry, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and gem index. This week, we sorted out the latest situation of the traditional Chinese medicine sector in the near future, and highlighted the four directions of traditional Chinese medicine innovation, high growth and undervalued value, covid-19 addition and going to sea in the traditional Chinese medicine sub industry. (Note: this week refers to 2022.1.10-2022.1.16)
II. Recent resumption:
The overall turnover of medicine is still very good this week, accounting for an average of about 12% this week. It is very hot, but it is also “extremely structured”. There will be the illusion that different investors will appear in the bear market and bull market at the same time. We believe that CXO and core assets with weak early performance have shown some signs of recovery this week. In addition, under the havoc of Omicron virus, the strong performance of covid-19 line, especially covid-19 detection, has attracted the attention of the whole market and still has a profit-making effect. Some traditional Chinese medicines still have performance, driving most small and medium-sized market values, The overall situation of large stabilization and small stabilization has been formed, and the performance of medical index must be good. Structurally, what are the reasons behind the continued strong performance of covid-19 kit and epidemic line? We think it is the “performance pre increase” line to cooperate with the epidemic fermentation outside China. The continuous speculation of stocks related to the epidemic this week has evolved from the detection and interpretation of covid-19 to the supply chain of covid-19 drugs and intermediates, and then extended to the upper reaches of the industrial chain, reflecting the rapid increase of funds’ enthusiasm for the concept of epidemic under the condition of increased uncertainty of the epidemic and poor overall market. The market will continue to interpret the expectation of covid-19 “influenza normalization”, The probability will continue to rise. In addition, although the fluctuation of traditional Chinese medicine sector has increased, some stocks still perform strongly. This main line will continue to differentiate. In the follow-up, we should strengthen the four directions of “traditional Chinese medicine innovation”, “high growth underestimated value of traditional Chinese medicine”, “covid-19 addition of traditional Chinese Medicine” and “traditional Chinese medicine going to sea”. In the same sentence, the grand view has not changed, and the market has gradually become clear. Medicine has entered the long-term configuration range, and the bottom is patient and upward. In the first half of 22 years, the bottom-up stock selection strategy relying on the track rather than the track should be the main tone.
III. sector view:
1. Thinking from the dimension of several years: if pharmaceutical investment in the past 3-4 years paid more attention to “selecting the head company of the main track to enjoy valuation expansion”, and paid more attention to “individual stock cost performance under valuation digestion” in the second half of 2021, then in 2022, we should pay more attention to “the structural rhythm of the first small and the later large”. Although they are structural opportunities, their expressions are different. Facing the short-term weakness of medicine, we have stretched our eyes. What is the essence of the long-term growth of the pharmaceutical industry? It is the long-term pull of just demand for medicine and the long-term pull of health consumption upgrading, and the current demand satisfaction and penetration rate are very low, which is the most long-term logic of medicine. However, because of people’s concerns about the reform policy of the payment end, people seem to ignore this essence. The payment end policy will not be the long-term logic restriction of a rigid industry, which is at most a medium-term and short-term interference item. In the medium and long term, we are optimistic. GDP growth is in the downward stage, the economic structure continues to adjust, and China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) industry is in the early stage of growth, there is a reverse scissors gap, and the comparative advantage is strengthened. With the release of the population data of Qipu, China’s population structure is undergoing great changes. In the future, the development logic of many industries driven by the huge demographic dividend will face great changes. The market will pay more and more attention to and look for industries with comparative advantages of incremental attributes, The industry with long logical cycle and strong certainty ranks at the forefront of non medicine (the aging intensifies the expansion of just needed medicine, the upgrading of health consumption intensifies the increase of consumption medicine penetration). In the future, the allocation funds of consumption medicine will strengthen the allocation of medicine from the medium and long-term dimension, resulting in the improvement of the overall water level of medicine, which is optimistic for the long term. The long-term 4 + X strategic thinking remains unchanged: Pharmaceutical Science and technology upgrading, pharmaceutical consumption upgrading, pharmaceutical manufacturing upgrading, pharmaceutical model upgrading, etc.
2. In the medium and short term: 2021 has experienced valuation digestion. For a period of time at the end of 2021, a round of market of traditional Chinese medicine, covid-19 line and small and medium market value seems to be declaring war on the values of the past five years. What is good? What is right? In fact, good or good, right or right, but the market expression is different at different stages. In fact, the industrial trend and industrial logic have not changed, but there will be periodic changes in the expression of valuation and position concentration. In this periodic change, the stock price will change with stages. At the present stage, if we follow the trend, we really need to grasp the rhythm. In 2022, we judge it as “small in the front and big in the back”.
3. Configuration idea:
* consumption upgrading: (1) selected traditional Chinese medicines: Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Guiyang Xintian Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002873) , Zhejiang Conba Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600572) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) . (2) Rehabilitation: Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) , Beijing Chieftain Control Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300430) etc; (3) Vaccine: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc(688319) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) ; (4) Ophthalmology: Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) * Manufacturing upgrade: (1) biomedical upstream ( Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) ) (2) differentiated cdmo ( Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) ) (3) API systematic upgrade ( Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) ) (4) injection export ( Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) ) * innovation upgrade: (1) CGT ( Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Northland, Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) ) (2) Platform innovation recovery ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ) (3) innovation internationalization ( Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ) (4) nuclear medicine ( Yantai Dongcheng Biochemicals Co.Ltd(002675) ).
* core repair: Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) .
* other long-term tracking and promising marks: Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) { Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) , {{605186186} {{605186186} Inkon Life Technology Co.Ltd(300143) {{ Inkon Life Technology Co.Ltd(300143) Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) { Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) {{ Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) Novogene Co.Ltd(688315) {{605605186186186186186} {605605186186186186} {{{{605186186186186186186} {{{605186186186186186186} {{{{3008166} {30068685} {} {{{{{{{30068677} {{{{{{30068677}, {{{{603603603603603882882 882 558}, Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(002294) Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , China biopharmaceutical, Zhejiang Wolwo Bio-Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300357) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Joincare Pharmaceutical Group Industry Co.Ltd(600380) , Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) , Shanghai Kindly Enterprises Development Group Co.Ltd(603987) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; 3) There may be errors in assumptions or calculations.
