The auto sector bucked the trend and rose, led by auto parts. CITIC auto index rose 1.15% this week, outperforming the market by 3.13 percentage points, ranking fourth among 30 industries. Among them, passenger cars fell 0.91%, commercial vehicles fell 3.09%, auto parts rose 4.13%, and auto sales and services fell 0.72%. In the concept sector, the new energy vehicle index rose 3.62% and the intelligent vehicle index rose 2.98%. Among the portfolios we focus on tracking, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) rose by 15.1%, 16.3%, 11.7% and 17.2% respectively this week, significantly outperforming the auto parts sector.
In mid December, the automobile association approved and sold 2.786 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.422 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, which was significantly better than – 4.7% in November, and became a regular for the first time since May; The month on month growth was 10.5%, much higher than the seasonality (the month on month average in December 2017-2020 was 4.1%), reflecting the continuous replenishment of the industry after the improvement of the supply side. In December, the sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars was 1.137 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. In December, the market share of independent brands in a single month was 46.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.4pct; From January to December, the sales volume was 44.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.0pct. The momentum of the rise of independent brands is relatively clear.
In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 531000, a year-on-year increase of 113.9%. The monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high, including 498000 passenger vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 120.6%. From the perspective of penetration rate, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in December was 19.0%, 1.2pct higher than that in November; Among them, the penetration rate of passenger cars was 20.1%, 1.1pct higher than that in November. Among the new forces, Tesla delivered 70602 vehicles in the Chinese market, an increase of 122.5% month on month; In 2021, Tesla‘s Shanghai plant delivered 484000 vehicles worldwide, accounting for 51.7% of its global delivery. The ideal sales volumes of Weilai, Xiaopeng and were 10489, 16000 and 14087 respectively, with month on month growth rates of – 3.6%, 2.5% and 4.5% respectively.
Investment suggestion: we continue to be optimistic about auto parts and intelligence. 1) Auto parts. Domestic parts enterprises benefit from the domestic substitution brought by the reshaping of supplier pattern after the rise of independent brands. Tesla‘s rapid expansion of production capacity in 2022 is conducive to the large-scale domestic supply chain. It is suggested to focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , ② automobile lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) . 2) Intelligent automobile. 2022 will usher in the first year of the landing of high-level hardware such as lidar and high-power chips, and the smart car industry chain will usher in a wave of performance release. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (domain controller and intelligent cockpit), Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) (wire controlled braking), Nextel (wire controlled steering), Shunyu optical technology, Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) (camera). 3) Vehicle. In 2022, the whole vehicle valuation repair gives way to the performance release. It is recommended to pay attention to Geely Automobile (the right side of the bottom of the product cycle), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (the product cycle continues to rise), Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (the leader of undervalued value and the performance release of the joint venture brand after the improvement of “lack of core”).
Risk tip: the progress of chip improvement is less than expected; Industry demand is lower than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; The independent replacement of domestic parts is less than expected.
