Social finance data continued to pick up, and nickel prices rose sharply
This week, the central bank released the social finance data for December. The M2 growth rate rose to 9% from 8.5% in November; M1 growth recovered to 3.5% from 3.0% in November, and the credit environment continued to be loose. This week, the Bureau of statistics released the CPI data for December. Last month, the CPI decreased by 0.3% month on month and increased by 1.5% year-on-year. In 2021, CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year, lower than the inflation control target of 3%. In December, PPI rose by 10.3% year-on-year (the previous value was 12.9%), and the ppi-cpi scissors difference converged. Due to the continuous ultra-low operation of inventory, nickel prices rose sharply this week, and LME nickel rose 7.19% to close at US $22225 / ton. We believe that with the gradual operation of domestic companies in Indonesia’s nickel sulfate project in recent two years and the increasing demand for nickel for ternary high nickel batteries, nickel is expected to become the next important energy metal. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
Lithium carbonate prices soared, and the tight supply pattern remained
The price of lithium carbonate rose sharply this week, industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 12.73% to close at 310000 yuan / ton, and battery grade lithium carbonate rose 11.07% to close at 331000 yuan / ton. The price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise sharply in recent two weeks, and the tight supply situation in the industry has not changed. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) . The cobalt price remains high this week. We believe that it is difficult to recover from the obstruction of shipping in South Africa in the short term, and the cobalt price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) .
Industrial metals rose slightly this week and are optimistic about metal prices under steady growth
Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.06% to close at 71460 yuan / ton this week; Aluminum rose 0.76% to close at 21230 yuan / ton; Lead rose 2.12% to close at 15590 yuan / ton; Zinc rose 2.00% to close at 24910 yuan / ton; Tin rose 4.56% to close at 307180 yuan / ton; Nickel rose 10.72% to close at 164030 yuan / ton. The inventory of copper, aluminum and other industries is still at a historical low, and the rhythm of accumulation is weak. In the macro environment of steady growth, the recent infrastructure good news is frequent, which may be conducive to the price of industrial metals. It is recommended to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , etc.
Gold prices rose slightly and are expected to maintain a narrow range
This week, spot gold in London rose 1.47% to close at US $1822.39/oz, while the US dollar index fell – 0.60% to close at 95.16; COMEX gold rose 1.11% to US $1816.50/oz this week, and Comex Silver Rose 2.59% to US $22.92/oz. We believe that there are still uncertainties in the overseas epidemic, inflation is difficult to solve in the short term, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range.
Risk tip: the Fed’s policy has changed more than expected, and the recovery of demand is less than expected.
