Talk every Monday: automobile production and sales stopped falling in 21 years and accelerated recovery in 22 years
In 2021, China’s cumulative production and sales of 26.082 million and 26.275 million vehicles were completed respectively, with production and sales of + 3.4% and + 3.8% respectively year-on-year over the past 20 years, ending the downward trend for three consecutive years since 18 years and turning positive on the whole. The annual sales volume of 22 years was 27.5 million, a year-on-year increase of + 5%.
Passenger cars: the annual production and sales were 21.408 million and 21.482 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.1% and + 6.5% respectively. In December, the production and sales of 2527000 and 242200 vehicles were completed respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.4% and + 2% respectively, and a month-on-month increase of + 13.2% and + 10.5% respectively. Independent brands are still strong, accounting for 46.9% in December. In the past 22 years, we paid more attention to the continuation of independent strength and the recovery of joint venture brands. In the past 22 years, the sales volume was 23 million, + 7%.
Commercial vehicles: the annual production and sales were 4.674 million and 4.793 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.7% and – 6.6% respectively. In December, the production and sales of 380000 and 364000 vehicles were completed respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 25.3% and – 20.1% respectively, and a month-on-month increase of + 7.7% and + 10.5% respectively. The year is under pressure due to demand overdraft and insufficient demand. In the short term, there is still uncertainty on the demand side of commercial vehicles such as infrastructure, real estate, logistics and passenger transport, which may enter the adjustment period.
New energy: the annual production and sales were 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. In December, the production and sales of 518000 and 531000 vehicles were completed respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively, with a chain comparison of + 13.3% and + 18.0% respectively. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 19.1% and that of new energy passenger vehicles was 20.6%. In the past 22 years, we continued to be optimistic about independent brands, accelerated the increase in volume and joint venture to fill vacancies, and the annual sales volume of new energy was 6 million.
Market review:
As of the closing on January 14, the auto sector was + 1.4%, and the CSI 300 index was – 2.0%. The increase of the auto sector was 3.4 percentage points ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked fourth among the 28 sectors of Shenwan last week. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been – 2.6%, ranking 14th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan. Weekly gains and losses of sub sectors: passenger cars (- 0.5%), commercial trucks (- 2.1%), commercial buses (- 1%), auto parts (+ 3%), and auto services (- 0.4%).
The top five in price range: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: * ST Zhongtai, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) , Yaxing automobile, St Tianyan, Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The auto sector should pay more attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow and the companies whose valuation center is improved. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) . High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) ; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and marketing fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) etc.
Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
