Investment summary:
Market review:
As of the closing on January 14, the coal sector fell 1.11% this week, the CSI 300 index fell 1.98%, and the coal sector rose 0.87pct ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the sector ranking, the weekly increase of coal sector ranks 13th among Shenwan 31 sectors, with an increase of – 0.77% year to date, ranking 8th among Shenwan 31 sectors.
Talk every Monday:
The downstream procurement has improved and the power coal price has strengthened in the short term: Recently, the coal supply guarantee policy has continued, the export ban in Indonesia has been gradually relaxed, and the daily consumption of power plants has been running at a high level. This week, the procurement demand of downstream non power plants has improved significantly, and the stock replenishment trend before the festival is obvious. The coal inventory in the northern port fell by 9.78% on a weekly basis, but it is still at a high level (+ 3.61%) on a year-on-year basis. The power coal price has strengthened significantly, Qinhuangdao Port coal price (q5500) rose 115 yuan / ton to 945 yuan / ton; Subject to the high inventory, the gradual recovery of Indonesian exports and the weakening of transactions, it is expected that the subsequent rise of coal prices will be limited. With the promotion of the reform of coal pricing mechanism, the fluctuation range of coal prices is expected to narrow and gradually move closer to the long-term agreement price. Continue to pay attention to the impact of winter security inspection actions of origin and changes in Indonesian export policies on the supply side;
The steel plant continued to resume production, and the scope of the fourth round of coke increase was expanded: on Friday, the weekly output of large varieties of steel was + 0.76% (- 1.85pct), short-term high profits or stimulated the steel plant to resume production after the lifting of the 21-year output limit, the steel plant’s enthusiasm for coke procurement was improved, and the scope of the fourth round of coke increase was expanded, with a cumulative increase of 700 yuan / ton, The factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke increased by 200 yuan / ton to 3060 yuan / ton; Safety inspection in Shandong and Shanxi is becoming stricter, and coke enterprises are willing to further raise prices; The price of coking coal continued to run strongly under the influence of the security inspection action of the main producing areas. The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi, Jingtang Port increased by 230 yuan / ton to 2830 yuan / ton a week, the profitability of coking enterprises recovered and the enthusiasm for procurement increased; The possibility of continuous administrative production restriction in the iron and steel industry has gradually decreased, and the subsequent resumption of production of steel mills is expected to increase. Affected by the improvement of steel mills’ enthusiasm for purchasing double coke and the security inspection of double coke origin, the price is expected to continue to strengthen;
Market impact: the change of Indonesia’s export policy has a short-term impact on the rhythm of power coal supply, and the long-term profit of the coal industry and the expectation of transformation are expected to promote the revaluation of the sector; It is expected that the resumption of blast furnace production in steel mills will increase, and the demand for coal coke may gradually improve. In the near future, the price of coal coke is expected to continue to strengthen under the background of stricter security inspection at the origin;
Investment strategy: focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and Yankuang energy, which benefit from the central rise of Changxie coal price, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Risk tip: the policy strength exceeds the expectation, the demand is less than the expectation, and the power policy changes.
