Talk every Monday: industry fund observation and slight improvement of financing environment
From the recent performance of several open financing channels that can be observed in the real estate industry, bank loans have warmed slightly, domestic debt financing has improved significantly, while the inflow of overseas foreign debt and trust funds is still relatively low. The financing channels that are more sensitive to policies have improved first, which has alleviated the fund tension in the industry.
In terms of total amount, real estate loans have entered a low-speed growth period since 2021. In September 2021, the balance of real estate loans was 51.4 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 5%. Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the growth rate of real estate loan balance began to slow down after reaching the peak, and the growth rate further fell to the single digit growth rate in a single quarter in 2021.
From the perspective of sub items, the slowdown in the growth of the balance of development loans is more obvious than that of individual housing loans. As of the third quarter of 2021, the balance of development loans in the balance of real estate loans was 12.2 trillion, the same as that in the third quarter of 2020, and the balance of personal mortgage loans was 37.4 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 11%.
Based on our calculation, the continuous downward trend of year-on-year growth of real estate loan balance has basically ended, and the financing environment of the industry from bank loans has improved slightly. We predict that the balance of personal housing loans in the fourth quarter of 2021 will reach 38.5 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. The balance of real estate loans in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be between 52.2-52.7 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3% - 6.3%, which is the same as or slightly better than that in the third quarter of 2021.
The marginal improvement effect of new issuance of domestic bonds continued, and the year-on-year decline in a single month has narrowed for two consecutive months. In December 2021, the new issuance volume of the real estate industry in China's bond market was 43.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, 22 percentage points lower than that of last month. Overseas debt financing continued to slump. In December 2021, the overseas foreign debt market issued US $500 million of new US dollar bonds, a year-on-year decrease of 78%, and the year-on-year data was basically the same as that in November. The recovery of trust fund financing is limited. In December 2021, the trust fund of the real estate industry increased by 29.7 billion according to the statistics of usufruct trust network, a year-on-year decrease of 66%, 4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The trust fund financing has improved, but the improvement level is not high.
Multiple factors will further improve the financing environment of the real estate industry. In 2022, under the background of "steady growth", the overall policy background of the real estate industry will show a trend of further easing and warming compared with 2021. Under the favorable conditions of multiple factors such as the replacement of loan lines in the real estate industry, the focus on M & A loans and the decline of housing loan interest rates in some cities, the capital environment of the industry will be further improved.
In addition to the improvement of financing environment, we still need to focus on the sales performance of commercial housing market in the first quarter. On the one hand, sales collection is still the largest part of the industry's capital source. On the other hand, the performance of the sales market will also indirectly affect the willingness to handle various loans and the approval process. Focus on the sales market performance from the end of February to March 2022.
Data tracking (January 10-january 16): due to the cross year impact, some data have changed significantly
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities was - 40pct and - 22pct in one week and cumulative year-on-year respectively, first tier cities + 2pct, - 11pct, second tier cities - 44pct, - 6pct, third tier cities - 60pct and - 52pct.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 14 cities was - 14pct year-on-year in a single week and - 19pct year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative land supply construction area of 100 cities is - 69pct year-on-year, the cumulative transaction construction area is - 76pct year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is - 84pct year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 0%.
City Market: month on month growth: Beijing (+ 48pct), Shanghai (- 1PCT), Guangzhou (- 22pct), Shenzhen (- 23pct), Hangzhou (+ 146pct), Wuhan (+ 43pct), Nanjing (- 10PCT).
Investment strategy: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and Greentown China under the product-oriented logic.
Risk tip: the sales market accelerated downward, individual real estate enterprises had a storm of debt default, and the policy exceeded the expected regulation.
