The new notice of the national development and Reform Commission is good for consumption and tourism development, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) looking forward to rapid growth in the new year
The national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future. The ten work measures help to stabilize consumption under the background of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, promote the stability of market order, and guide large commercial circulation enterprises and e-commerce brands to expand to rural areas, so as to meet the convenient consumption and nearby consumption needs of rural residents. The fifth work measure “vigorously improve the supply of cultural, tourism and leisure services” to promote the good development of the scenic spot industry under the normalization of the epidemic situation. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) disclosed the announcement of annual performance pre increase in 2021. The company’s performance pre increased by 54% – 66%, but Q4 decreased by 46-69% compared with the same period last year. We believe that 1) there may be multiple expense amortization in the fourth quarter of 2021, which will have an impact on the net profit of a single quarter. 2) The tax-free market in Hainan developed stably in the fourth quarter, and the revenue volume of China tax exemption in the fourth quarter met expectations. 3) China’s trade development plan for the 14th five year plan has been issued, which is favorable for the tax-free industry, and China tax exemption is expected to accelerate its development.
Special topic of epidemic situation tracking: the epidemic situation in China is distributed at multiple points, and the overall prevention and control system is still effective
Shanghai added a medium risk area and called on the people to step up vaccination: on the 13th, Shanghai added 2 locally confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and 3 locally asymptomatic infections. Wu Jinglei, director of Shanghai Health Commission, called on the people to step up vaccination against covid-19 virus. The epidemic situation in Xi’an has improved, and the epidemic situation in Shaanxi has begun to end. As of January 15, the number of confirmed local cases in Xi’an was in single digits for the fifth consecutive day, and there were no social cases for six consecutive days. The centralized isolation personnel are currently isolated in designated medical institutions for treatment. The dynamic clearing policy ensures the overall stability of China’s epidemic prevention: he Qinghua, Disease Control Bureau of the National Health Commission, said that “the Omicron mutant does not affect the sensitivity and specificity of China’s existing nucleic acid detection reagents. China’s general strategy of ‘external defense input and internal defense rebound’ and the general strategy of ‘dynamic clearing’ are still effective for the Omicron mutant.” We believe that with the follow-up vaccination rate, the approval and implementation of domestic specific drugs and the promotion of oral specific drugs research, residents’ consumption will gradually desensitize to the disturbance of sporadic epidemic situations, and the 22-year consumption expectation is expected to be repaired; In addition, under the environment of economic internal circulation, consumer demand will be boosted in the long run.
Optimistic about the long-term development space of the prefabricated vegetable industry
The market for prefabricated dishes is hot this week. According to the data of iResearch consulting, the market scale of Chinese prefabricated dishes in 2017 was about 100 billion yuan, reaching 260 billion yuan by 2020, and the CAGR was about 37.5%. The development of prefabricated vegetable industry not only has the internal needs of the development of agricultural industry to a certain extent, but also the urgent needs of the public for epidemic prevention life, as well as the deep-seated desire of urban people for fast-paced and residential economy. With the continuous development of takeout business and group meal business in China’s catering market, the market penetration of prefabricated dishes is expected to continue to increase in the future. IResearch predicts that the market scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetables will reach 345.9 billion yuan / yoy + 18.1% in 2021, and it may exceed trillion yuan in the next 6-7 years.
This week’s view
The epidemic repeatedly brought short-term pressure to the tourism sector and did not change the pattern of long-term shock recovery. It is suggested to pay attention to the stability of the industry pattern, clear logic of medium-term recovery, hotel sector ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Junting Hotel, Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ), anti cyclical attribute sector ( Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) ), tax-free sector with prominent leading barriers ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ) and scenic spot sector ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) ).
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Repeated outbreaks exceed the expected risk; Risk of intensified industry competition; The landing of new projects / products is less than the expected risk; Food safety risks; Risk of major teaching accidents
