Main points:
Banking stocks: industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by - 1.08%, 1.78% and 1.78% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 12th, 2nd and 2nd among the 28 Shenwan industries.
In terms of weeks, the stock prices of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) increased by 7.62%, 6.95%, 5.13% and 4.35% respectively. On a monthly basis, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) share prices rose by 14.17%, 11.04% and 10.98% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) have achieved an increase of more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: net money supply and inter-bank market interest rate increased. This week, the total money supply was 50 billion yuan, the total withdrawal was 40 billion yuan, and the net money supply was 10 billion yuan, an increase of 670 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has realized a net recovery of 650 billion yuan.
This week, the inter-bank bond pledge repo rate and interbank lending rate increased. On January 14, dr007 was 2.30%, an increase of 50bps compared with last Friday. Dr001 was 2.20%, up 40bps compared with last Friday. The overnight lending rate was 2.27%, up 38bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.39%, up 2bps from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m and 3M interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the issuing interest rate of 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased. On January 14, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.43%, 2.65% and 2.74% respectively, with changes of + 2bps, + 1bp and - 5bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread between China and the United States has expanded
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds decreased, and the term interest spread expanded. On January 14, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.17% and 2.79% respectively, with changes of - 6bps and - 2bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.62%, up 3bps from last Friday. This week, 1y and 10Y US bond yields rose, and the term spread narrowed. On January 14, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 0.51% and 1.78% respectively, with changes of + 8bps and + 2bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 1.27%, down 6bps from last Friday.
U.S. liquidity indicators: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises increased, and the tips yield increased
(1) on January 12, the U.S. secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, the same as last Friday; (2) On January 13, the US corporate bond option adjusted spread was 3.1%, down 10bps compared with last Friday; (3) On January 14, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was - 0.66%, up 6bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
Bank stocks fell sharply on Friday, dragging down the whole bank index. The social finance data in December and November showed similar results. The total amount of social finance supported by government bonds rebounded, but the performance of RMB loans was weak, which showed that the demand of residents and enterprises was insufficient. However, from a policy perspective, the first quarter will usher in the fastest pace of wide credit in the whole year, with higher credit growth, lower non-performing rate and rapid profit growth. We are still firmly optimistic about China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) and Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down more than expected.
