I. The scale of private equity funds will increase by 63% in 2021!
According to the latest data of China Foundation Association, by the end of 2021, the scale of private securities funds was 6.12 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of + 63%. Private equity funds grew rapidly after 2020q4, from 3.2 trillion at the end of September 2020 to 6.12 trillion at the end of 2021, almost doubling! On the one hand, the reason is that the asset scale of high net worth people has increased rapidly (the average annual CAGR has increased from 12% in 2016-2018 to 17% in 2018-2020). Private equity funds are more suitable for the needs of high net worth customers due to the pursuit of absolute return, risk control, diversification of investment strategies and high binding with customers’ interests. On the other hand, they are driven by the rapid development of wealth management industry in recent years.
With the implementation of real estate tax, it is expected that the asset allocation of high net worth customers will continue to flow to private securities funds. However, due to the opaque information of the private placement industry and the rapid development of the industry, we judge that the supervision will be further tightened. Therefore, we expect private equity funds to maintain rapid growth in the future, but the growth rate will decline.
II. In 2021, the scale of private equity and venture capital increased by 16%, and the growth inflection point appeared!
By the end of 2021, the scale of private equity and venture capital funds was 12.8 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of + 16%. After the implementation of the new asset management regulations in 2018, the credit of shadow banks contracted (about 1 / 3 of private equity funds before 2018 were non-standard creditor’s rights of public shares and real bonds), and the private equity industry was cleared up, and the scale growth rate decreased. The growth rates in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were 51%, 21%, 13% and 13.5% respectively. Compared with previous years, the growth rate has increased this year.
Recently, the favorable policies of fund-raising end and exit end are frequent. At the fund-raising end, the threshold of venture capital investment in PE / VC is greatly reduced. At the exit end, Beijing stock exchange was established and PE / VC share transfer was piloted in Beijing and Shanghai.
We judge that China’s private equity investment market is about to usher in a real accelerated development period.
III. The “good start” of public funds is cold, which is mainly affected by short-term market sentiment
The “good start” of public funds at the beginning of this year is lower than that in previous years. The main reasons are as follows: 1) the scale of “good start” new funds of equity public funds is significantly related to the rise and fall of net fund value in the previous year. The partial stock fund index in 2021 was + 4%, the lowest in recent years (except 2018). In 2017, the partial equity fund index was + 13%, and the newly issued shares of equity funds (based on the starting date of subscription) in January 2018 was 101.8 billion; In 2018, the partial equity fund index was – 25%, and the newly issued share of equity funds in January 2019 was only 15.4 billion; In 2019, the partial equity fund index was + 44%, and in 2020, the newly issued share of equity funds was 75 billion; In 2020, the partial equity fund index will be + 52%, and the new shares issued by equity funds in January 2021 will reach 514.9 billion. 2) Short term market sentiment tends to be negative, which affects the purchase intention of fund investors. At the beginning of this year, A-Shares and fund net worth fell continuously. In the eight working days of the year, the Shanghai stock index and partial stock fund index fell – 3.3% and – 6.1% respectively. In the eight working days from 2019 to 2021, the Shanghai index was + 2.4%, + 2.2%, + 3.6% respectively, and the partial stock fund index was + 1.9%, + 4.5%, + 5.5% respectively.
We believe that the scale of short-term new development funds is less affected than expected by market sentiment and is within the normal fluctuation range. It can be found from the 2020 survey report on investors in the public fund market released by China Foundation association that the cognitive level of public fund investors is gradually improving, the continuous transfer of residents’ asset allocation to equity assets is the general trend, and the purchase demand of equity public funds is still strong.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the private equity target Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co.Ltd(000935) and Everbright Holdings; We are optimistic about CICC h, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , which has a rapid transformation to “buyer’s investment adviser”; China stock market news, Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) .
Risk tips: the capital market fluctuates sharply, the policy promotion effect is less than expected, and the business promotion of securities companies is less than expected
