Sector market review
This week (01 / 10-01 / 14), the transportation index fell 1.42%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.98%, outperforming the market by 0.56%, ranking 14 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the comprehensive logistics sector increased the most (2.18%), and the port sector decreased the most (- 3.54%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: Recently, the general office of the Ministry of human resources and social security and the office of the State Post Office jointly issued the notice on promoting the priority of grass-roots express outlets to participate in work-related injury insurance, which ensured the legitimate rights and interests of the courier group, and achieved positive results. After deducting the adjustment factors of individual brand enterprises, the overall unit price of express business in December was 9.70 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.26% month on month. In the peak season, the price of express delivery increased, and the performance of express delivery enterprises entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the performance forecast. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 2-2.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.20% to 24.52%, and the net profit attributable to the parent in Q4 was RMB 1.046-1.246 billion, a year-on-year increase of 174.68% to 227.20%. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) the adjustment of business strategy pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of production capacity cycle gradually subsides, Kerry Logistics promotes the development of international business, the certainty of performance repair is strong, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the supply of the industry is limited, and the demand side still grows every year. We are optimistic that the chemical logistics sector will pay attention to Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) . The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Aviation: the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development was issued. The number of takeoff and landing sorties increased by 6.5% annually from 2019 to 2025, and the industry supply was tightened. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normality in production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines. The restriction policy is expected to be relaxed. Superimposed on the market-oriented reform of ticket prices, the long-term profit of the airline company will be better. After the adjustment of the aviation sector, the investment value will be highlighted. It is recommended to actively allocate and focus on Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) and Air China Limited(601111) .
Key industry data
Centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 3489.94 points, up 1.66% month on month; The SCFI index was 5094.36 points, down 0.3% month on month. Dry powder: the BDI index was 1764.00 points, down 22.9% month on month; The CDFI index was 1167.02 points, down 9.27% month on month. Oil transportation: the BDTI index was 698.00 points, down 1.0% month on month; The bcti index was 593.00 points, down 5.4% month on month.
Express: in November 2021, the revenue of express business above designated size was 107.490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%; The express business volume was 11.332 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; The unit price of express delivery was 9.49 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; The brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services is 80.70.
Aviation: Brent crude oil was 86.06 US dollars / barrel, up 5.27% month on month; In January 2022, the ex factory price of aviation kerosene (including tax) was 4871.00 yuan / ton, down 9.5% month on month; The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.3677, down 0.10% month on month.
Railway: in November 2021, the passenger volume of railway was 144 million, a year-on-year decrease of 33.05%; The railway freight volume was 419 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.03%. Highway: in November 2021, the National Highway freight volume was 3.477 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.30%; The road passenger volume was 365 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 43.30%.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
