Core view
Market review: throughout the week, the CSI 300 index fell 1.98%, the gem index rose 0.73%, and the textile and garment industry index fell 0.03%, which is between the CSI 300 and the gem index. Among them, the textile manufacturing sector rose 1.01%, and the brand clothing sector fell 0.93%. In terms of individual stocks, Shenzhou International, Anta sports and Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding And Furnishing Co.Ltd(002327) we covered have achieved positive returns
Overseas highlights: (1) the annual sales of Brunello cucinelli soared by more than 30%. (2) Sequoia china holdings international tide brand we11done. (3) Affected by the Omicron strain, lululemon lowered its forecast for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021.
Important information of industry and company: (1) Tebu International: the Group expects that the comprehensive profit of the company’s common equity holders will increase by no less than 70% year-on-year in 2021. In 2021, the retail sales of Tebu’s main brands (including Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) channels) increased by more than 30% compared with the same period last year; Retail inventory turnover is about 4 months. (2) Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) : the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 230 million yuan to 265 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 63.97% to 88.92%. (3) Shenzhou International: since 11:00 a.m. on January 8, 2022, the epidemic response level in Beilun District has been adjusted from level I to level II, the temporary closure management measures in Beilun District other than the closed control area and the control area have been lifted, and the scope of the prevention and control area has been adjusted. (4) 1 / 1 ~ 1 / 7 investment and financing of consumer industry: A. functional sports brand OMG completed an angel round of financing of tens of millions of yuan; b. Beauty Collection store brand B + oil tank won the strategic investment of Shangtang technology. C. Bawei Co., Ltd., a cosmetics processing enterprise, completed round B financing of more than 100 million yuan
Suggested sector combinations this week: Shenzhou International, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) , Anta sports and Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) . Last week’s portfolio performance: Shenzhou International 6%, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) – 2%, Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) – 1%, Anta Sports 6% and Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) 3%.
Investment proposal and investment object
The trend of manufacturing stronger than brand in the textile and garment industry continued this week. Under the condition that the current market is generally cautious about China’s consumption data in the first quarter, export manufacturing is one of the few sectors with high prosperity certainty, and will still be the focus of the textile and garment industry in the short term. For the brand clothing sector, there is a lack of catalyst in terms of short-term terminal data. Considering the relatively high base in the first quarter of 2021, we expect the annual operating performance to show a trend of low before high. However, in the medium term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the investment in the brand clothing sector – on the one hand, the market’s expectation of fundamentals has been fully reflected in the stock price, and the valuation of most brand leaders has fallen back to the historical bottom; On the other hand, under the policy support, the bottom of the future economy will also drive the emergence of structural opportunities in the industry. For the whole year, our first choice is still high prosperity sportswear and big beauty (cosmetics and medical beauty). Among them, sportswear recommends Li Ning (02331, buy), Anta sports (02020, buy), Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (300979, buy) and Shenzhou International (02313, buy). It is recommended to pay attention to Tebu International (01368, buy), Large beauty sector is optimistic about Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) (603605, buy), Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957, overweight), it is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) (600315, overweight), Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) (688363, Unrated) and Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896, Unrated). The traditional clothing sector recommends Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) (002003, buy), Bosideng (03998, buy), Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) (605080, buy), Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) (002293, overweight), Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) (002563, buy), etc. It is recommended to pay attention to Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) (002154, not rated), Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) (002832, not rated), etc. In the short term, as a whole, we still suggest to focus on the segmentation leaders with relatively certain growth, undervalued value, high roe or high dividend, especially those with global competitiveness in the manufacturing field.
Risk tips
The repeated global epidemic, the pressure of economic slowdown on China’s retail terminals, trade friction, cotton price and RMB exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
