This week’s view:
Under the background of accelerated spread of Omicron, covid-19 detection became the focus again, and the pharmaceutical sector gradually warmed up. This week, CSI 300 fell by 1.98%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry rose by 2.41%, ranking first in 28 primary sub industries. The global spread of Omicron virus strain has accelerated. The daily confirmed cases of covid-19 in the world have reached a new high since the epidemic, and the average number of new cases in recent 5 days has exceeded 3 million. Catalyzed by the epidemic situation, enterprises related to covid-19 detection reagent once again became the hot spot of the market this week. The weekly increases of Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Asahi biology, Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co.Ltd(688399) and so on were more than 40%, driving the medical device sub sector to rise by 7.71% this week. Considering that the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector has been at a historically low level, the track leader gradually enters the adaptation range after the valuation digestion, and the superposition enters the performance forecast / express window period, which is expected to drive the overall good performance of the sector. In the follow-up, we continue to suggest to grasp two directions: fundamental improvement and valuation repair of undervalued sectors, such as traditional Chinese medicine, API, chain pharmacies, etc; High prosperity track after continuous adjustment, such as cro / cdmo, upstream of life sciences, medical services, etc.
Focus again on covid-19 theme: focus on therapeutic drugs and testing. Under the background of accelerating the spread of Omicron, the global daily diagnosis has reached a new high, and the epidemic situation in China has broken out at multiple points; Superimposed on the landing of large export orders of China’s covid-19 testing reagents and the continuous strengthening of logic, we believe that the covid-19 theme is expected to trigger another investment boom. We reviewed the covid-19 theme at each stage since the epidemic, and the overall upsurge from the beginning of 2020, including epidemic prevention products such as gloves / masks, Chinese testing reagents and the transfer of global industrial chain; Covid-19 vaccine from July to August; In the fourth quarter of 2021, the market continues to look for new logic and catalysis for the detection and export of covid-19 therapeutic drugs. At the current time point, we believe that the follow-up catalysis of covid-19 therapeutic drugs and detection at sea is expected to continue, and it is recommended to continue to focus on it. 1) In terms of therapeutic drugs, the United States has two small molecule oral drugs: EUA Pfizer (paxlovid) and molnupiravir; Azvudine phase III clinical of real organisms in China, a variety of small molecule drugs in early clinical stage are under research, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) vv116 has been approved overseas, and Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) phase I clinical in the United States is in progress. Focus on three logics: Chinese R & D and innovation enterprises with high progress; Cdmo industrial chain of new drugs created by large overseas pharmaceutical enterprises; And generic API applications in other parts of the world. Such as Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) , Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600267) , etc. 2) Detection reagent: since the covid-19 antigen home self-test OTC kit of Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) obtained the EUA of FDA, the detection has attracted much market attention. Recently Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) signed a large order of more than 8 billion yuan with American ACC, further catalyzing the sector market. We believe that the market of testing reagents is expected to continue. It is suggested to focus on relevant enterprises: Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Anxi biology, Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) , etc.
Can the market of traditional Chinese medicine continue? Since the beginning of the year, the overall performance of the traditional Chinese medicine sector has been flat. We believe that it is mainly due to the differentiation of the sector after the rapid increase in the early stage. However, on the whole, there is a strong foundation for the sustainability of the market in the sector under the background of favorable policies, product price increase and governance improvement. The policy strongly supports the development of traditional Chinese medicine. Recently, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other provinces have successively issued the 14th five year plan for the development of traditional Chinese medicine, which further promotes the high-quality development of traditional Chinese medicine at the local level; Previously, the State Administration of traditional Chinese medicine and the State Medical Insurance Bureau jointly issued the guiding opinions on medical insurance supporting the inheritance, innovation and development of traditional Chinese medicine, which also made it clear to increase medical insurance at the payment end to support the inheritance and development of traditional Chinese medicine. Based on the logic that the price rise of upstream medicinal materials drives the price increase of end products and the improvement of the governance structure of relevant state-owned enterprises, we suggest focusing on the following enterprises: Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , Henan Lingrui Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600285) .
Omicron became the mainstream strain, and enhanced vaccination was still effective. Omicron has spread rapidly since it was found. According to the data of who, as of January 4, Omicron strain had appeared in 128 countries and regions around the world. At present, Omicron has become the main strain, accounting for more than 80% in most countries. According to the research published by the national infectious diseases Medical Center (Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University) on emerging microbes & infections, the virus may still maintain a certain level of transmission after the third injection, but it will improve the protection of the population against Omicron and still have the potential to significantly reduce the proportion of severe cases. Considering that the influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic is becoming more and more obvious, it is recommended to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related development enterprises, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) – u, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , etc. In the long run, each vaccine head enterprise has a large amount of heavy varieties or is about to go on the market. With the increase of vaccination awareness under the covid-19 epidemic, we expect that the vaccination rate of large varieties is expected to continue to increase and gradually approach the level of developed countries. The class II vaccine industry is expected to achieve a compound growth of 20% – 30% in recent 3-5 years. It is recommended that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) 。
Performance of key recommended stocks: key recommendations in January: Yaoming biology, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) ; The average rise this week was 8.05%, outperforming the pharmaceutical industry by 5.63%.
One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 1.6%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is – 4.3%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector outperforms that of CSI 300 by 2.7%. This week, CSI 300 fell by 1.98%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry rose by 2.41%, ranking first in 28 first-class sub industries. The sub sectors of chemical pharmacy, biological products, medical devices, pharmaceutical commerce, traditional Chinese medicine and medical services all rose, with the increase of medical devices taking the lead, at 7.71%; Pharmaceutical business and traditional Chinese medicine sub sectors increased slightly, 0.14% and 0.72% respectively.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
