Main points
This week, the household appliance sector rose by – 5.8%, of which the white electricity / Black electricity / kitchen electricity / small household appliances sector rose by – 6.8% / – 0.8% / – 6.4% / – 5.9% respectively. Except that Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) (+ 6.5%) and Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) (+ 5.5%) share prices rose, other stocks generally fell. In terms of raw materials, the prices of main raw materials increased in varying degrees month on month. LME copper, LME aluminum, steel and plastics increased by 3.0%, 2.0%, 0.3% and 0.7% respectively.
From the demand side, the fundamentals of the home appliance industry in 2021 are basically consistent with the trend of social zero. Q1 has a high growth rate, q2-q3 is under pressure, and Q4 has recovered. With the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic, people’s lives are on track, and in the long run, consumption is still an important support for China’s economic growth. We expect that the consumption growth rate will continue to recover and improve quarter by quarter in 2022. For the household appliance sector, the post cycle demand for real estate accumulated in 21 years is expected to be released in 22 years. It is expected that the emerging household appliances category of 22q1 is expected to maintain a high growth rate, the high base pressure of small household appliances such as rice cookers gradually disappears, and the base of some categories is low. The growth rate of export business fell quarter by quarter. It is expected that the export of 22q1 refrigerator will face a certain base pressure.
Upstream, the price of raw materials has dropped significantly since 21q4. Considering the preparation cycle, it is expected that the report end of 22q2 will be improved. According to the situation, for the export OEM enterprises with long preparation cycle and certain time lag in price transmission, most of the products shipped in 21q1 are prepared before the price rise in the early stage, and the price rise in the downstream also falls after 1-3 quarters. Therefore, 21q1 has not been greatly affected. The shipment of 22q1 continues to use Q4 high raw materials, and the gross profit margin may still be under certain pressure year-on-year, and Q2 is expected to improve, Relevant targets include Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , Kingclean Electric Co.Ltd(603355) ; For domestic independent brand enterprises with fast turnover, more than 21q1 has been affected to some extent, and 22q1 may be expected to improve. Among them, online direct sales can be directly transferred by reducing discounts, so the impact is small. Relevant targets include Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) ; Most offline dealers raised their prices to dealers from April to the second half of the year, and the gross profit margin of 22q1 is expected to improve significantly, including Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) . The recent high fluctuation of sea freight rate is expected to further explore, and the export business is expected to recover gradually. A number of favorable real estate policies have come, and there is strong certainty of recovery in 22 years. The completed area in the first half of the year was at a high level throughout the year, supporting the sales of 22h1 household appliances.
Investment advice
White electricity and kitchen electricity faucets have high turnover efficiency and strong ability to raise prices. 22q1 has high certainty of performance improvement with the decline of raw material prices, and the post cycle demand of the real estate is expected to be released quarterly. It is recommended to actively layout Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) before and after the annual report. The small household appliance sector Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) and other sectors have been subject to the pressure of high base in 21 years, and the performance of 22q1 is expected to improve with the recovery of demand; Q2 improvements such as Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) are expected to be high. However, according to the preparation cycle, 21q4 and 22q1 correspond to high price inventory, and the export business is greatly affected by the sea price. It is expected that 21q4 and 22q1 may still be under certain pressure, but it is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the stock price fluctuations before and after the annual report.
Risk tips
Risk of rising raw material prices, risk of less than expected demand, risk of repeated epidemic, impact of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of chip shortage and price rise.
