Main points:
The pattern of head component manufacturers is stable and the future profits can be expected
Recently, PV tech released the ranking of global component suppliers CR10 in 2021, of which 8 are Chinese enterprises. The top 5 PV module shipments in 2021 are Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Jingke energy and atlas. In 2020, the component shipment volume Cr5 is about 65%. According to PV info data, the concentration of PV module enterprises will be further improved in 2021. We expect that the module shipment Cr5 will be further increased to about 75% in 2021. Looking back over the past five years, the leading component enterprises have been relatively stable. The top five enterprises have not changed in the past three years. We believe that under the condition of long-term low profitability, the competition pattern of component manufacturers has improved, the barriers have gradually strengthened, and the market share of leading enterprises is on the rise. With the continuous expansion of silicon material enterprises, it is expected that the upstream raw materials will be in the price reduction stage in 22-23 years. The competition pattern of component links is stable, and the enterprise profit is expected to stabilize and recover.
Raw materials show an upward trend in the short term and are still optimistic about the outbreak of installed capacity in 22 years
The silicon material was maintained at 230 yuan / kg this week, and the lowest price increased by 4 yuan / kg to 215 yuan / kg compared with last week; 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafer increased by 0.9% to 5.85 yuan / wafer. Meanwhile, Longji announced the price of silicon wafer at the weekend, and the p-type silicon wafer increased by 0.12 yuan / piece to 4.95 yuan / piece; M6 silicon wafer increased by 0.12 yuan / piece to 5.1 yuan / piece; M10 silicon wafer rose 0.30 yuan / piece to 6.15 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.4% – 5.1%. The prices of other links of the industrial chain remain unchanged.
Due to strong downstream demand, the price of silicon material and silicon wafer rose in the short term this week. With the new production capacity of silicon material put into operation, it is expected that the supply will be released in March 22, and the price of silicon material will gradually decline. We expect that in 22 years, under the general trend of price reduction in the raw material section, the component profit will stabilize and recover, the yield of downstream power stations will increase, and the demand will break out further.
Investment advice
It is expected that the price of raw materials will continue to decline and the profitability of components will recover. It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , etc; It is expected that the installed capacity will break out in 22 years. It is recommended to pay attention to inverter sectors Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) .
Risk tips
The installed capacity of the industry was less than expected, the epidemic intensified, and the global economy was seriously affected.
