Key news tracking this week
According to the economic information daily, the implementation policy of carbon peak in petrochemical industry has been formulated, and the relevant documents have yet to be officially released. Relevant standard formulation, statistics, accounting and other work are progressing steadily, and capacity control policies for some industries will also be introduced in the future. From the general idea, we will accelerate the optimization of industrial layout and structural adjustment, strengthen the upgrading and transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction and the elimination of backward production capacity, develop new energy, new materials and other industries, and comprehensively promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the industry.
Price tracking comments on key products this week
WTI oil price rose 6.2% to USD 83.82/barrel this week.
Key injection sub industries: this week, the prices of silicone / TDI / ethylene glycol / DMF / urea / pure MDI / rubber / calcium carbide PVC / viscose staple fiber increased by 11.1% / 5.8% / 3.7% / 3% / 2.7% / 1.4% / 1.4% / 1.2% / 0.5% month on month respectively; Heavy soda ash / Spandex / acetic acid / light soda ash / caustic soda / VA / ethylene PVC / ve prices fell by 5.8% / 5.8% / 5% / 4.4% / 4.3% / 3.8% / 0.8% / 0.6% month on month respectively; The price of viscose filament / solid methionine / liquid methionine / titanium dioxide / polymeric MDI remained unchanged.
The top five sub industries of this week’s growth: calcium pantothenate 98% (domestic) (+ 86.7%), butadiene (East China) (+ 42.9%), thermal coal (Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal) (+ 13.9%), industrial lithium carbonate (+ 13.1%), aniline (East China) (+ 12.5%).
Calcium pantothenate: calcium pantothenate market rose significantly this week; First, there is a shortage of raw material panthenolide, and the shortage of upstream raw material isobutyraldehyde has a significant impact on the production of panthenolide; Second, the production of pantothenic acid lactone is restricted by environmental protection; Third, calcium pantothenate manufacturers have strong price support because the Winter Olympic Games is coming, and the production of Hebei, Shandong and other manufacturers may be affected.
Butadiene: the inquiry in China’s butadiene market rebounded strongly this week because the market believed that Omicron had a limited impact on the global economic recovery, the oil supply could not keep up with the demand, the price continued to rise, and the cost of butadiene was strongly supported. Due to the continuous reduction of olefin profits and the reduction of steam cracking unit in South Korea, the spot supply of butadiene is tight. The rise of the external market has given a certain boost to the mentality of Chinese merchants. The sharp rise of the external price has led to a strong speculation atmosphere in the Chinese butadiene Market, the manufacturers’ offer continues to push up, and the focus of market negotiation is upward.
Market performance of chemical sector this week
The basic chemical sector rose 0.82% over last week, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.98% over last week. The basic chemical sector outperformed the market by 2.81 percentage points, ranking fifth in all sectors. According to Shen Wan’s classification, the major weekly increases in the basic chemical sub industry include pesticides (+ 10.51%), soda ash (+ 8.62%), inorganic salts (+ 6%), other chemicals (+ 3.86%), phosphorus chemical industry and phosphate (+ 3.83%).
Key sub industry views
(1) many factors affect the 22-year boom of the sub industry. The overall profitability of the pesticide industry is expected to improve in the 22-year period when the cultivated land area is expected to increase, the grain price remains at a high level, China’s supply is orderly and the price rises in the fourth quarter. It is mainly recommended that Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) ; The prosperity of the tire industry has bottomed out, and the new energy field has brought development opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . The boom of viscose industry is expected to reverse, and Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) is recommended. (2) The demand economy is relatively weak, and the fields of semiconductor materials, military materials and other new materials are independent and controllable in the medium and long term; Focus on the chemical synthesis platform company Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) and China’s private gas leading enterprise Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) . (3) The downstream demand is stable, and great attention is paid to the subdivided fields such as photovoltaic, wind power, new energy and sugar substitutes; It is recommended that Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) be the leader of new energy functional materials and Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) be the leader of global sweeteners. (4) The vertical and horizontal expansion of the leader, prominent integration advantages, and the profit center is expected to rise; Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) are recommended.
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuation of crude oil price; Covid-19 epidemic leads to less demand than expected risk; Safety and environmental protection risk
