This week, a total of 9 banks disclosed the performance express of 2021 (4 joint-stock banks, 2 urban commercial banks and 3 rural commercial banks). From the bank express: 1. The annual performance growth rate maintained an upward trend, and the robustness was better than the market expectation. The annual cumulative revenue increased year-on-year and showed an accelerating trend. The nine listed banks increased by 10.7% year-on-year (9.9% year-on-year in q1-q3). Under the provision release profit, the annual net profit growth maintained an upward trend, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit of each sector reached more than 20%, and the performance of urban commercial banks was more prominent. 2. Growth drivers: credit increased year-on-year; The net interest margin is expected to be stable month on month. 1) The overall growth rate of scale remained stable, and deposits and loans increased year-on-year. It has been disclosed that the weighted average growth rate of total assets of nine banks is 10.4%, the year-on-year growth rate of credit and deposits is wider, the year-on-year growth rate of loans is 12.7%, and the year-on-year growth rate of deposits is 10.6%, both of which are wider than that in the previous three quarters. 2) It is expected that the overall net interest margin of the industry will remain stable, but there will be slight differentiation among individuals. The change of interest rate spread calculated by average total assets shows differentiation. CMB and Changshu calculated that the single quarter annualized net interest margin rose month on month, which is expected to be mainly the joint contribution of liability side pricing and structure. Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) the annualized interest rate spread in a single quarter decreased month on month. 3. The overall asset quality remained stable. The non-performing rate decreased month on month. The average non-performing rate of 9 banks that disclosed the express fell 4bp to 1.07% month on month in the fourth quarter, of which 7 banks showed a month on month decline; Five companies achieved double reduction in non-performing products. The risk offsetting capacity was tamped at a high level, the annual provision coverage continued to tamp 14.4pct month on month on the basis of the high level in the third quarter, and the improvement of urban rural commercial banks was more obvious.
Investment suggestion: at present, the safety margin of the sector is relatively high, and the asset quality constructs the safety margin of bank stocks. 1. The core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. For details, see our relevant in-depth report “how do bank stocks perform when prices rise? – summary and comparison of multiple rounds of performance of bank stocks in China and the United States”. We expect that the asset quality of listed banks will be stable in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank shares. 2. Banks have two main lines of stock selection. One is our long-term proposal to continue to embrace the core assets of banks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) . Their performance is highly sustainable and scarce. The boom of high-quality banks is certain and long-term. First, these scarce high-quality banks have a “market-oriented gene” and are “running to make money” in the industry of “lying to make money” (state-owned); Therefore, in the era of banking differentiation, their growth can be valued continuously. Second, these banks occupy the sunrise track of the financial industry: wealth management and retail; Our in-depth report estimates that the growth rate of wealth management profit in the next decade will be 21% (see detailed calculation of income, profit and market value of “wealth management industry”: the golden track with a market value of 10 trillion). The other is to choose banks with undervalued value, safe asset quality and expected successful transformation, and be optimistic about Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) .
Risk warning event: the economic downturn exceeded expectations.
