Core view
Weekly performance of the sector: this week (2022 / 1 / 10-2022 / 1 / 14), the machinery sector fell by 2.6%, and the top five sectors were lithium equipment / building equipment / instrumentation III / printing and packaging equipment / internal combustion engine, rising by 2.5% / 1.4% / 0.5% / 0% / - 0.6% respectively;
Sector valuation level: the median pettm of the machinery sector is 39x, of which the highest valuation is lithium battery equipment (119.3x) and the lowest valuation is construction machinery (15.8x). From the historical data within 10 years, the P / E ratio of the machinery sector is in the quantile of 29.01%;
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: the five stocks with the highest increase this week are Jiangsu Skyray Instrument Co.Ltd(300165) , Zhejiang Canaan Technology Limited(300412) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangdong Senssun Weighing Apparatus Group Ltd(002870) , Chongqing Mas Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(300275) ;
Industry highlights: Premier Li Keqiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on January 10 to deploy and accelerate the promotion of major projects identified in the outline of the 14th five year plan and special plans, and expand effective investment. The meeting pointed out that in accordance with the requirements of the central economic work conference, steady growth should be placed in a more prominent position, the strategy of expanding domestic demand should be firmly implemented, the "flood irrigation" should not be carried out, and targeted final consumption and effective investment should be expanded. We should accelerate the implementation of 102 major engineering projects and key projects of special planning identified in the outline of the 14th five year plan. According to the requirement that funds follow the project, the 1.2 trillion yuan of local government special bond funds issued in the fourth quarter of last year should be transferred to specific projects as soon as possible. We should deepen the reform of the examination and approval system for investment projects and implement innovative measures such as commitment system and regional evaluation.
Investment proposal and investment object
Oil service industry under $86: after the correction in November, Brent crude oil price returned to more than $80 and reached $86, exceeding the pre epidemic level and reaching an 18-year high. From the perspective of industrial chain, we believe that the continuous recovery of oil price will help promote the prosperity of oil service industry. From the perspective of inventory, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory reached 413 million barrels on January 14, 2022, which is at a low level and continues to decline; In terms of the number of drilling rigs, the global oil service market is picking up. In December, the global drilling rigs reached 1562, significantly higher than 1017 in October of 20 years, but there is still a big gap from 2000 before the epidemic; From the perspective of U.S. drilling inventory, 4855 wells were drilled in major areas in November, reaching the lowest level since June 2014. In December, US CPI rose by 7% and energy prices rose by 1.8pct. We believe that the state of low development and consumption inventory is difficult to be sustained for a long time. In terms of upstream capital expenditure, CNOOC recently announced its 2022 business strategy and development plan. The total capital expenditure budget in 2022 is RMB 90 billion-100 billion, which continues to be higher than the level before the epidemic; Rystad energy predicts that upstream oil investment will increase from US $287 billion in 2021 to US $307 billion in 22 years. We believe that although there is limited room for oil price rise with the recovery of the epidemic and the increase of oil and gas supply, it still has an economic driving force for upstream companies, and oil services and equipment are expected to further recover after the cold winter after the epidemic. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the oil service sector.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
(1) construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031, not rated), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) (000157, bought), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) (601100, not rated), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984, not rated), Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) (603638, not rated); (2) Industrial equipment: Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) (603298, Unrated), Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) (600761, Unrated), Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) (000837, Unrated), Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) (300415, Unrated), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) (002747, Unrated), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607, Unrated); (3) Logistics automation: Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) (603066, not rated), Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) (603611, not rated), Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) (301039, not rated); (4) Energy equipment: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450, not rated), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) (300724, not rated), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) (002353, not rated), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) (601717, not rated), Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) (600582, not rated); (5) Rail transit equipment: Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) (601766, not rated), Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) (000976, not rated); (6) Service & Consumption: Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) (300572, Unrated), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) (300012, Unrated), Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) (603337, Unrated), Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) (603583, Unrated), Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) (605288, Unrated), Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) (603901, Unrated).
Risk tips
The epidemic development is less than expected, the macro economy is less than expected, infrastructure investment is less than expected, raw material prices rise, and Global trade conflicts intensify.
