The impact of the epidemic was limited, the US dollar weakened more than expected, and the international oil price exceeded US $80 / barrel
This week, the market’s concern about the Omicron strain gradually eased. Driven by the expected warming of interest rate hike, the US dollar index fell instead of rising, the impact of the epidemic weakened, the US dollar weakened more than expected, and the international oil price continued to rise. As of January 14, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices closed at US $87.09/barrel and US $83.82/barrel respectively. The US dollar index closed near 95.1.
The number of oil drilling rigs in the United States increased and crude oil inventories decreased by 4.55 million barrels
This week, the number of active oil drilling wells in the United States increased by 11 to 492, and the total number of oil and gas drilling rigs increased by 13 to 601. The US crude oil inventory was 413.3 million barrels, a decrease of 4.55 million barrels over the previous week; The total gasoline inventory in the United States was 240.7 million barrels, an increase of 7.96 million barrels over the previous week; Distillate oil inventory was 129.3 million barrels, an increase of 2.53 million barrels over the previous week.
OPEC production increased in November 2021, increasing by 285000 barrels / day to 27.717 million barrels / day compared with the previous month
OPEC output increased in November 2021, with Saudi Arabia’s output of 9.867 million barrels / day, an increase of 101000 barrels / day over the previous month; Iraq’s output was 4.24 million barrels per day, an increase of 91000 barrels per day over the previous month; Iran’s output was 2.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 9000 barrels per day over the previous month; Venezuela’s output was 625000 barrels / day, an increase of 15000 barrels / day over the previous month; Libya’s output was 1.14 million barrels per day, a decrease of 15000 barrels per day compared with the previous month.
This week, naphtha, propylene and butadiene prices rose, while ethylene and pure benzene prices fell. The price difference of naphtha, PDH and MTO fell.
The impact of the epidemic was limited, market confidence recovered, and PetroChina’s performance hit a seven-year high
This week, on the supply side, Libya’s crude oil production returned to 963000 barrels / day, and Kazakhstan’s largest oil field with reserves of 25.5 billion barrels was in normal operation. The short-term supply tension was alleviated. However, the cold weather in North America affected crude oil transportation, oil producing countries faced the problem of low oil and gas capital expenditure, and it was difficult to expand production capacity. The market’s concerns about OPEC + and US production increase have not ended, Crude oil supply gap is still; On the demand side, countries’ prevention and control measures for Omicron strain were relatively relaxed, and the market’s concern about the epidemic gradually eased. The EIA raised the global crude oil demand to 100.52 million barrels / day in 2022. Overall, the pattern of crude oil supply and demand has improved and the international oil price has continued to rise. This week, PetroChina released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 90-94 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 374% – 395%. The company’s oil and gas business has been steadily promoted. The sales of main oil and gas products have increased both volume and price, superimposed cost reduction and efficiency increase, and the company’s performance in 21 years has increased significantly year-on-year, reaching a new high in recent seven years. CNOOC Energy Economics Research Institute released China’s marine energy development report 2021, which pointed out that China’s marine crude oil production increment exceeded 80% of the national increment, and the output will continue to increase in 2022; CNOOC released its business strategy for 2022, proposing that the net output in 2021 will reach 570 million barrels of oil equivalent, and the net output target in 2022 will be 600-610 million barrels of oil equivalent. Marine energy will become a new bright spot in China’s energy output growth.
Investment suggestions: we expect that the overall pattern of crude oil supply and demand will be good in the future. China will continue to enhance China’s energy production guarantee capacity and accelerate the development and application of advanced exploitation technologies for oil and gas resources. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the prosperity of the oil and gas sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subscripts: first, the upstream sector, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) ; Second, oil service sector, China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation(600871) , Bomesc Offshore Engineering Company Limited(603727) ; Third, large private refining and chemical sector, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ; Fourth, light hydrocarbon cracking sector, satellite chemistry and Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; Fifth, coal to olefins, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ; The sixth and third largest chemical white horses, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) and Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) .
Risk analysis: geopolitical risk, the spread of Omicron strain, and the output growth of the United States is too fast.
