This week’s view: this week, Shenzhen and other places issued the “14th five year plan” for housing development. 40 key cities preliminarily planned to add 6.5 million affordable rental housing units (rooms), and the pace of follow-up affordable housing construction is expected to accelerate. In the notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future, the national development and Reform Commission stressed “promoting the healthy development of housing consumption”, reiterated “supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers” and “taking measures according to the city to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry”; Beihai relaxed the provident fund policy and reduced the down payment requirement for second homes from 60% to 40%. Considering that the industry operation and liquidity pressure still exist, more cities may introduce property market support policies under the policy of “implementing policies for cities”. In terms of investment suggestions, there is still room for short-term policy game. The medium and long-term industry bottoms out and stabilizes. The leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of policies and stand out with comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) . The property management and business management sector has broad space, stable stock and strengthened independent development. Under the trend of increasing policy support and concentration, mainstream participants have great prospects. They are optimistic about property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength and continuous good operation, such as country garden service and poly property, as well as commercial operators occupying high-quality tracks in shopping centers and strong asset light output strength, Such as Xingsheng commerce, etc. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to waterproof faucet Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) .
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Shenzhen: during the 14th Five Year Plan period, 540000 sets (rooms) of public housing are planned to be built in five years; 2) Beihai: relax the provident fund policy and reduce the down payment for second homes to 40%.
Market operation monitoring: 1) turnover rebounded month on month, and it is expected to decline steadily. With the elimination of the lag in the filing of new year’s Day holiday, 50000 new houses and 16000 second-hand houses were sold this week (1.8-1.15), up 29.5% and 83.9% month on month. The average daily turnover of new houses in January decreased by 26.8% year-on-year, an increase of 8.5pct compared with December. With the completion of the year-end sprint of real estate enterprises, the transaction in January is expected to be lower than that in December, and the transaction in a single week is expected to be stable. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in December 2021, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 2.2pct to 77.4% month on month. 3) Inventories rose slightly month on month, short-term or relatively stable. The inventory of 16 cities was 102.18 million square meters, up 0.1% month on month. Under the pressure of short-term supply slowing down and de industrialization, the inventory may be relatively stable. 4) The land transaction and premium rate fell, and the proportion of the third tier increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 4.792 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 3.513 million square meters, down 66.5% and 81.2% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 0%, down 3.3pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 18.2%, 29.2% and 52.6% respectively, with a month on month decrease of 1.6pct, 25.4pct and 27pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: this week, domestic real estate enterprises issued bonds of 9.62 billion yuan, an increase of 4.33 billion yuan month on month, and overseas bonds of 250 million US dollars, an increase of 110 million US dollars month on month; The domestic and foreign issuance interest rate is 2.47% – 8%, and the comparable issuance interest rate is lower than the previous one. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 6.12 billion yuan this week, an increase of 2.31 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector fell 3.5% this week, underperforming CSI 300 (- 1.98%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.41 times, and the valuation is at the quantile of 18.47% in recent five years. This week, the top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north were Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) ; The top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from southbound serve China’s overseas development, rongchuang China and country garden.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Large scale impairment risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
