Main points:
We believe that the investment strategy of the chemical industry is to invest in systematic innovation and low-cost expansion. The next wave of industrial pattern of chemical industry depends on talent competition. The chemical industry has changed from a simple capital intensive industry to a talent and capital intensive industry. The latecomers can’t surpass the capital and can only stare at the latecomers. Therefore, the periodicity of the chemical industry becomes weaker. With effective incentives, excellent management and continuous innovation, excellent companies have created unshakable advantages in technology iteration, low cost and efficient service, and conquered cities and territories in the global market.
Carbon neutralization may bring disruptive changes and opportunities to the chemical industry
Carbon neutralization has a far-reaching impact on the chemical industry. According to npcpi statistics, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and basic chemical industry lead all industries in carbon emission, accounting for about 18% of the total national carbon emission, of which “process carbon emission” accounts for about 6% and “engineering carbon emission” accounts for about 12%, which is greatly affected by the 3060 carbon neutralization target. From the perspective of industry evolution, we believe that the chemical industry is expected to experience three stages in the context of carbon neutrality in the next 40 years:
The first stage reaches the peak step by step. There are many chemical products. The energy consumption and carbon emission of each product are different, and its carbon peak requirements may be different. We understand that for high energy consuming products or industries, it does not mean that there is no development, but the peak will be reached first, and low energy consuming products or industries are expected to obtain a longer growth window;
The second stage of future competition is downstream and overseas. With the carbon peak, the upstream bulk raw materials in China’s chemical industry hit the ceiling due to relatively high energy consumption, but without a large amount of new production capacity, the profit center increased significantly. The huge cash flow obtained by large chemical enterprises either invested in the downstream fine chemicals and new materials, or continued to expand the production capacity of similar products, Just transfer the new capacity to countries or regions with greater carbon capacity. In the second stage, chemical enterprises may face large-scale technological transformation of public works, and use green energy alternatives to reduce energy consumption, so as to reduce the tax costs related to carbon neutralization;
The third stage is the era of bio based materials and energy. Chemical products are closely related to people’s lives, and the demand will not disappear because of policies. However, under the goal of carbon neutralization, fossil based materials may face subversive impact locally. Bio based materials are a possible alternative / supplement. With the decrease of the cost of bio based materials, the increase of the cost of fossil based materials (the increase of carbon emission taxes) and the breakthrough of bio based materials of “non grain” raw materials, bio based materials are expected to become a new bottom material for global industry.
It is worth emphasizing that the above is the idea of industry evolution for 40 years. 3060 mainly affects the ceiling of long-term high energy consuming products or industrial development, and has little impact on the approved planning projects. In addition, a series of operable policies will evolve under the 3060 goal. With the implementation of specific policies and the breakthrough of new technologies (including synthetic biology, new energy storage technology, new nuclear power technology, new recovery technology, etc.), the three stages we understand may also be staggered.
From April 1, carbon emission calculation shall be mandatory for buildings
Recently, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the national standard general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization, and approved the general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization as the national standard, numbered gb55015-2021, which will be implemented from April 1, 2022. This specification is a mandatory engineering construction specification, and all provisions must be strictly implemented. The relevant mandatory provisions of the current engineering construction standards shall be abolished at the same time. If the relevant provisions in the current engineering construction standards are inconsistent with the specifications, the provisions of the specifications shall prevail.
The scope of application of the general code is “design, construction, acceptance and operation management of building energy conservation and renewable energy building application system for new, expanded and reconstructed buildings and existing building energy conservation and reconstruction projects”, involving new buildings, existing buildings, renewable energy system, construction commissioning acceptance and operation management, etc.
The key points of the general specification include:
\u3000\u30001. The full text is mandatory and must be strictly implemented;
\u3000\u30002. The general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy covers a wide range, including new buildings, existing buildings, renewable energy systems, construction commissioning acceptance and operation management;
\u3000\u30003. Building carbon emission calculation as a mandatory requirement;
\u3000\u30004. Detailed requirements for renewable energy utilization;
\u3000\u30005. The energy-saving design level of new buildings was further improved. The general specification improves the thermal performance limit requirements of residential buildings and public buildings. Different from the current energy-saving standards in most regions, the average design energy consumption level is reduced by 30% and 20% respectively on the basis of the current national and industrial standards for energy-saving design. Among them, the average energy-saving rate of residential buildings in severe cold and cold areas should be 75%; The average energy saving rate of residential buildings in other climatic areas shall be 65%; The average energy saving rate of public buildings shall be 72%.
\u3000\u30006. New design index requirements for energy efficiency of industrial buildings in mild areas. Compared with the unified standard for energy efficiency design of industrial buildings (gb51245-2017), the general specification adds energy efficiency design indicators for industrial buildings with heating and air conditioning systems in mild area a, expands the scope of application of industrial standards, and strictly implements industrial buildings in mild areas;
\u3000\u30007. HVAC system efficiency and lighting requirements have been comprehensively improved.
On building carbon emission: in 2019, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development approved the calculation standard of building carbon emission as the national standard, numbered GB / t51366-2019, which defines the calculation standard of building carbon emission, and defines the definition, calculation boundary, emission factor and calculation method of building emission. Building carbon emission refers to the sum of greenhouse gas emissions generated by buildings in the production, transportation, construction, demolition and operation stages of related building materials, expressed in carbon dioxide equivalent. The calculation boundary refers to the calculation range of greenhouse gas emissions related to the production and transportation, construction, demolition and operation of building materials. Building carbon sink refers to the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed and stored by greening and vegetation from the air within the designated building project scope.
We believe that the implementation of the general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization on April 1 will further promote the demand of building envelope industry (doors and windows, thermal insulation material industry) and other industries in the field of building energy conservation.
Industry maintenance:
[petrochemical sector]
Pure benzene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1628400 tons, the same as last week.
Toluene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1390100 tons, 240000 tons less than last week.
Propylene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 7.74 million tons, 750000 tons less than last week.
Butadiene: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 617000 tons, a decrease of 135000 tons over last week.
Isobutylene: there is no production capacity under maintenance this week, which is the same as last week.
Bisphenol A: the production capacity under maintenance this week is 40000 tons, 260000 tons less than last week.
PX: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 9.415 million tons, the same as last week.
PTA: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 21.57 million tons, 3.7 million tons less than last week.
Acrylic acid: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 190000 tons, an increase of 110000 tons over last week.
Butyl acrylate: it is under maintenance this week, with a total capacity of 240000 tons, an increase of 80000 tons over last week.
Propylene oxide: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.51 million tons, the same as last week. [coalification sector]
Ethylene glycol: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 8.47 million tons, an increase of 2.28 million tons over last week.
Acetic acid: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 6.96 million tons, an increase of 250000 tons over last week.
Acetic anhydride: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 310000 tons, the same as last week.
Adipic acid: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 915000 tons, the same as last week.
DMF: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 70000 tons, the same as last week.
[polyurethane sector]
MDI: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 2.27 million tons, an increase of 400000 tons over last week.
TDI: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 2.237 million tons, the same as last week.
[chemical fiber sector]
Polyester chip: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 300000 tons, the same as last week.
Polyester bottle chips: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 3.95 million tons, the same as last week.
Polyester staple fiber: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 2.22 million tons, an increase of 450000 tons over last week.
Polyester filament: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 13.8432 million tons, an increase of 700000 tons over last week.
Nylon slicing: there were 2 companies in maintenance this week, the same as last week. [pesticide and fertilizer sector]
Synthetic ammonia: a total of 66 companies were under maintenance this week, an increase of 1 over last week.
Risk tips
Policy disturbance; Technology diffusion; New technology breakthrough; Global intellectual property disputes; Global trade disputes; The tightening of carbon emission brings the risk of catching up with production capacity; Risk of sharp decline in oil prices; The risk of a sharp economic downturn.
