Report guide
In early January, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports increased by 7.4% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade throughput increased by + 7.2% year-on-year. The container throughput of the eight hub ports was + 3.5% year-on-year, of which the throughput of foreign trade / domestic trade containers was + 5.9% and - 3.9% year-on-year. Benefiting from the order transfer under the influence of overseas epidemic, China's export resilience remains in the short term, and attention is paid to the adjustment of container rates at coastal hub ports.
Key investment points
Port data in early January
(1) overall: cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports: year-on-year + 7.4%, including foreign trade throughput + 7.2%
In early January, the cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports increased by + 7.4% year-on-year; Among them, the foreign trade throughput was + 7.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 10.8pct compared with + 18.0% year-on-year in late December, and the year-on-year increase narrowed.
(2) container: the container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by + 3.5% year-on-year
In early January, the container throughput of the eight hub ports was + 3.5% year-on-year (the previous value was - 1.4%). Among them, the throughput of foreign trade containers was + 5.9% (previous value - 0.1%) and that of domestic trade containers was - 3.9% (previous value - 5.7%) year-on-year.
(3) throughput of key goods and port inventory
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, year-on-year + 7.9% (previous value + 32.5%); In terms of port deposit, year-on-year + 12.3% (previous value + 7.5%). Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year + 19.4% (previous value + 12.1%); In terms of port storage, from the perspective of 45 ports nationwide, the port storage of iron ore on January 14 was 157 million tons, an increase of 26.5% over the same period last year. Coal: in terms of throughput, Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua Port + 6.0% year-on-year (previous value + 13.7%); In terms of port deposit, according to the caliber of Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua, the year-on-year rate was - 14.5% (the former value was + 22.5%).
Continue to pay attention to the adjustment of container rates at coastal ports
Event: on December 1, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) announced that the shipping company would increase the loading and unloading charges of 20 foot and 40 foot empty and heavy containers by about 10% from January 1, 2022; On December 3, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) announced that the transfer fee of 20 foot heavy containers for domestic trade would be increased by about 50%; On December 8, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) announced that from January 1, 2022, the lump sum fee for port operation of ordinary foreign trade heavy container barge gathering mode will be increased by about 8%, and the fee for ordinary foreign trade heavy container trailer gathering mode and empty container will be increased by about 19%.
Sensitivity measurement: price adjustment is expected to bring revenue increment, but there is no marginal cost. We assume that the price of comprehensive container business in each port will increase by 10%. It is estimated that:
1) Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : in 2020, the container related revenue will be 13.345 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.307 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increases by 10%, the static profit elasticity will be about 12%;
2) Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) in 2020, the revenue related to containers will be 5.554 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.431 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increases by 10%, the static profit elasticity will be about 12.1%;
3) Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) in 2020, the revenue of qqct (51%) in charge of container business was 3.874 billion yuan, and the total net profit of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) was 3.842 billion yuan. If the container price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 4%.
Tips on actual rate: Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) this price adjustment is an adjustment to the published price. However, it should be noted that there is a difference between the published rate and the actual agreed rate signed with the shipping company, which does not rule out adopting different price strategies for customers of different shipping companies.
Latest monthly port data
(1) cargo throughput of coastal ports in November: year on year + 2.5% (previous value + 0.6%)
(2) container: the container throughput of the eight hub ports increased by + 0.3% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade container throughput increased by + 1.1% (previous value + 0.7%) year-on-year, with an increase of 0.4%.
(3) throughput of key goods
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, year-on-year in December + 30.2% (previous value + 10.6%); Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year in December + 17.1% (previous value + 11.1%); Coal: in terms of throughput, year-on-year + 12.6% (former value - 0.6%) in December (Port Association focuses on monitoring port caliber).
(4) key coastal ports
In November, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports in Guangxi increased rapidly, Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) cargo throughput increased by + 28.2% year-on-year in the same month. The year-on-year growth rates of Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) and Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) ports were 16.3% and 11.4% respectively.
In November, the foreign trade cargo throughput of Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) container throughput exceeded 15%.
Key ports: Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large city caliber) achieved a cargo throughput of 51 million tons. Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) the cumulative year-on-year foreign trade cargo throughput and container throughput were + 4.0% and + 9.3% respectively.
Latest shipping rate index
Baltic dry bulk index (BDI): on January 14, the BDI index was 1764 points, a decrease of 23.2% compared with January 6 and a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%.
Crude oil transportation index (BDTI): on January 14, the BDTI index was 698 points, a decrease of 1.8% compared with January 6 and a year-on-year increase of 39.6%.
Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI): on January 14, the SCFI index was 5094 points, a decrease of 0.30% compared with January 7 and a sharp increase of 76.6% compared with a year ago.
China export container freight index (CCFI): on January 14, the CCFI index was 3490 points, an increase of 1.66% over January 7 and a significant year-on-year increase of 87.2%.
Investment advice
RCEP has officially come into force, which is expected to catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports in the medium and long term. RCEP (regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement) entered into force on January 1, 2022. With the formal entry into force of RCEP, Member States will immediately implement zero tariff on a large number of products. In the future, 90% of products will enjoy zero tariff in about 10 years. According to surging news, RCEP is expected to drive a net increase of US $519 billion in exports of Member States by 2030, and the growth of medium and long-term foreign trade volume will catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports.
Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) : the logic of increasing quantity and stabilizing price is verified step by step. Benefiting from the growth of container business driven by the company's expansion of routes and the release of new liquid bulk cargo capacity in Dongjiakou port area, the company's liquid bulk cargo throughput increased. In the first 11 months of 2021, the company completed a cargo throughput of 584 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 5.2%, and a container throughput of 21.88 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of + 9.3%; In terms of rates, after the establishment of Shandong Port Group in August 2019, the first three steps of integrating the "four-step strategy" have been completed, the price competition of regional ports continues to ease, and it is expected to enter the large cycle of coordinated price increase. We expect the rate end to continue to improve. In the future, the company's number of routes is expected to further increase: 23 foreign trade routes will be added in 2021, the growth rate of routes has entered the fastest and best period in history, and the number and density of routes rank first among ports in northern China.
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : the leader of undervalued value, benefiting from the regional advantages, the empty container transportation center is located in the new area near the port, and continues to be optimistic about the growth of the company's main port business. In 2021, the company's container throughput increased by + 8.1% year-on-year to 47.033 million TEU, and the cargo throughput increased by + 5.7% year-on-year to 539 million tons. On November 1, 2001, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) opened an automatic container port in Haifa new port, Israel, which was invested and built overseas and has the right to operate. The annual design throughput of phase I terminal is 1.06 million TEUs. With the help of Haifa new port, the company's home port is expected to further strengthen business ties with ports on the "maritime Silk Road" in the future, and continue to consolidate the company's position as an international shipping hub port.
Risk tip: deterioration of Global trade; The global epidemic lasted longer than expected; The port policy was less than expected.
