Industry core view:
Last week (January 10-january 16), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63%, the Shenwan social service index fell 0.84%, and the social service index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.79 percentage points; Last week, the main sub sectors of social services were mixed: hotel catering 3.56%, tourism and scenic spots 0.24%, education – 3.58%, professional services – 0.86% and sports – 2.25%. In 2021, the duty-free market in Hainan’s outlying islands achieved good results. Haikou customs supervised a total of 49.5 billion yuan of duty-free shopping in Hainan’s outlying islands, an increase of 80% year-on-year, mainly due to the return of overseas consumption, the continuous release of policy dividends from the new tax-free policy and the active layout of duty-free retailers, which are optimistic about the high prosperity and duty-free track for a long time. Recently, the popularity of prefabricated dishes has boosted the hotel catering sector, leading the tourism industry. Prefabricated dishes not only meet the needs of convenient, delicious and healthy diet of the working population at the C end, but also meet the needs of cost reduction and efficiency improvement of the consumers at the B end. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the residence time is prolonged, and the demand for prefabricated dishes is greatly increased, driving the catering temperature up. In the post Olympic era, ice and snow tourism ignites travel heat, and short-distance peripheral tours are also popular. High end resort hotels that can give consideration to skiing and hot springs have become the main hotel choice for leisure travel for many young people. Although the upward recovery process will not stop, the epidemic situation at home and abroad is still the biggest hidden danger. China Tourism Research Institute lowered its tourism economic forecast for 2022 to be cautiously optimistic. The vocational education sector of the education industry benefits from policy support: the State Council proposes to strengthen the training of digital technology skilled talents in Vocational Colleges (including technical colleges), deepen the construction of new engineering and new liberal arts in the field of digital economy, support enterprises and colleges to build a number of modern industrial colleges, joint laboratories and practice bases, and develop the order system Modern apprenticeship and other diversified talent training modes. It is suggested to pay attention to education companies committed to the development of educational technology and the layout of subdivided tracks of vocational education.
1. Tourism: it is suggested to pay attention to: 1) head travel agencies and tourist destinations that benefit from the integration of peripheral tourism and sports tourism; 2) Hotel leaders benefiting from the recovery of consumption and diversified product layout. 2. Education: the State Council proposes to strengthen the training of digital technology skilled talents in Vocational Colleges (including technical colleges), build a number of modern industrial colleges, joint laboratories and practice bases with enterprises and colleges, and develop diversified talent training modes such as order system and modern apprenticeship system. It is suggested to pay attention to education companies committed to the development of educational technology and the layout of subdivided tracks of vocational education. 3. Tourism retail: it is suggested to pay attention to the tax-free leader benefiting from policy support and comprehensive licensing channels.
Key investment points:
Last week (January 10-january 16), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.63%, the Shenwan social service index fell by 0.84%, and the social service index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.79 percentage points, ranking 10th among the 31 primary industry indexes of Shenwan. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 3.26%, the Shenwan social service index has fallen by 1.7%, and the Shenwan social index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.56 percentage points, ranking 12th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry related news: 1) Tourism: the duty-free sales of Haikou customs supervised outlying islands in 2021 reflect the changes of population structure and consumption habits. 2) Education: the number of non-profit online discipline training schools registered in Beijing has increased to 10; The “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy was announced to strengthen the training of digital technology skilled talents in vocational colleges; According to the public service plan of the 14th five year plan, the gross enrollment rate of preschool education is expected to exceed 90% by 2025.
Important announcements of listed companies: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co.Ltd(603060) , Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) performance forecast, Xi’An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) related party transactions, Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) restructuring and renaming, Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) financial assistance; Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) , Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(000526) performance forecast; Chengdu B-Ray Media Co.Ltd(600880) introduce war casting.
Risk factors: 1. Risk of natural disasters and safety accidents. 2. Policy risk. 3. Investment, M & A and integration risk.
