Continue to pay attention to the expected changes in the steady growth policy. Last week, the sector fell 6.89%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5 percentage points. We believe there are three main reasons: 1) the credit data in December was lower than expected, reflecting the lack of economic momentum and limited financing demand under the economic slowdown. At the core, we believe that there are still considerable differences in the strength and direction of macro stable growth in the market, leading to the choice of profit cashing before the end of the year; 2) The forecast of some companies shows the impairment exceeding expectations and Q4 slowdown. The market is worried that more performance forecasts lower than expectations lead to the mood still not bottoming out; 3) After the real estate policy “bottomed out” in December last year, large market capitalization companies and index stocks have rebounded by 20-30% to complete the valuation repair. This position continues to rise, which needs growth clarity support. Therefore, the market is relatively repeated and tangled. We believe that the next focus of the market is to further clarify the direction of monetary and fiscal policy and pay attention to the force expectation of stable growth policy.
During the performance forecast window period, focus on Q4 gross profit margin and impairment expectation. Since 2022, some enterprises have successively issued performance forecasts for 2021, including Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) and China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) announcements, leading the industry in overall performance, and the stock price has bucked the trend. In the cold winter of real estate regulation, pay attention to the differentiation factors of upstream building materials enterprises: 1) category and channel support for performance, 2) price increase transmission ability and cost control ability, and 3) risk prevention ability. Due to the cash flow risk of some key real estate enterprises in 2021 (resulting in more impairment of some building materials enterprises), the C-end representatives who focus on cash flow and risk control strategy first, such as Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) and Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) of non centralized purchase, the above enterprises also have strong channel control and price increase transmission ability.
The first batch of special bonds will be issued in 2022, focusing on the proportion of infrastructure investment. According to the statistical data of wind bonds, the first batch of special bonds has been issued in 2022, including 9 new special bonds, with a total scale of about 38.2 billion yuan, which is slightly lower than the market expectation. However, according to our statistics, nine special bonds are issued in Henan, of which three are mainly related to shed reform, with a total scale of about 13.7 billion yuan, and six are related to broad infrastructure (including transportation facilities, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, ecological environmental protection, people’s livelihood, cold chain, municipal administration, old reform, new infrastructure, Rural Revitalization and cultural tourism), with a total scale of 24.5 billion yuan, accounting for 64%, The proportion of special bonds invested in broad infrastructure construction is relatively high. It is estimated that the annual special bonds in 2022 are still expected to continue to tilt towards stable growth, new and old infrastructure, and the proportion of infrastructure investment in public financial expenditure is also expected to increase; In addition, last weekend China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) announced the order situation in 2021. The newly signed infrastructure orders in the whole year were 843.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.1%, which confirmed that the infrastructure order reserve was good, and the steady growth under the accurate force was still worthy of attention.
Plate shocks focus on structural opportunities. In the early stage, we published two series of steady growth reports, clearly indicating that we are optimistic about the old transformation, affordable housing, new and old infrastructure in 2022, including waterproof, pipeline, ceramic tile, vibration reduction and isolation, fabricated materials, etc. at the same time, we pay attention to the annual opportunities of photovoltaic glass sector. With the price reduction of silicon wafer and the increase of component shipments in the later stage, Low cost photovoltaic glass enterprises have the opportunity to grow in large quantities.
Risk warning. Demand is lower than expected, cost is higher than expected, systemic risk.
