Key changes this week: ① Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) released the performance express, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 4.185 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5% at the same time. ② Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) release performance forecast. ③ Rongchuang China placed 452 million placing shares at a price of HK $10 per share, with a discount of 15.3%. ④ On January 10, the national Standing Committee proposed to accelerate the construction of food and energy security, advanced manufacturing, infrastructure, affordable housing and other fields, and speed up the implementation of simplified procedures for qualified projects, especially major water conservancy projects. ⑤ In December, the year-on-year growth rate of exports reached 20.9%, and consumer electronics was the largest driver of exports. ⑥ This week, the mainstream quotation of electronic yarn was reduced to 5.5 yuan / meter.
Zhou Xing’s reason: the guidance of macro policies on the real estate industry and the performance in 2021 caused sector fluctuations.
Core view:
(1): continuously prompt to attach great importance to the infrastructure chain, and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof in reverse cycle. The implementation of special bond projects is “early”, “quasi” and “fast”, and infrastructure investment is expected to play a “grasping” role to effectively hedge the downward pressure of Q1; Among them, the central economic work conference proposed that “pipelines are old and in disrepair”, which is expected to be paid more attention during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The negative impact of recent gas leakage on safety accidents is great, and the construction of pipe network involves safety, and the necessity of renewal and maintenance is greatly increased.
(2) firmly optimistic about the to C retail model, the real estate boom is down, and pay more attention to the difference between high-quality operation and business model. On the other hand, the edge of hardbound housing is weakening, the impact on just needed housing is small, and the retail environment is relatively improved.
(3) the policy of the real estate chain is clear, and the marginal easing continues. From the perspective of landing, the improvement of the financing end gives priority to promoting the completion and delivery of houses. The demand for glass, hardware, coating, pipe, gypsum board and indoor waterproof is expected to pick up in the first half of the year.
(4) new materials throughout the year: the leader of building materials accelerates the R & D and promotion of new materials. For example, carbon glass composites of wind power blades, UTG glass (folding mobile phone application), medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. It is suggested to focus on the application of new materials. The future revenue contribution is expected to increase steadily, smooth the periodicity of real estate / infrastructure, and facilitate the acquisition of emission indicators.
Key targets: ① Municipal & Rural pipe network construction pays attention to [China Liansu], growth + cycle [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elastic attention [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], steady + green power attention [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ]. ② Continue to be optimistic about the performance of C-end, focus on [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profits, accelerate concentric circle strategy, and focus on [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] of C + small B. ③ The real estate chain is optimistic about the stabilization of the valuation of consumer building materials. The core targets include [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ], and the key targets include [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ] [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ]. ④ New materials focus on [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (UTG), [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] (wind power grouting material, etc.), Guangdong Haomei New Materials Co.Ltd(002988) (automobile lightweight), [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (medium borosilicate tube bottle), [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ] (electronic / photovoltaic / medicinal glass), Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , [CSG a] (electronic / photovoltaic glass), [ Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) ] (photovoltaic glass). ⑤ Export chain attention [ Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ].
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
