Demand improved and prices rebounded more than expected. As of January 14, wind data showed that the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 900 yuan / ton, up 85 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. On January 14, the inventory of key ports (SDIC Jingtang Port, Qinhuangdao port and Caofeidian port) was 9.02 million tons, down 1.18 million tons on a weekly basis. This week, Newcastle thermal coal in Australia climbed to 217 US dollars / ton (the highest point is 250 US dollars / ton), the economy of imported coal continued to decline, and the rise of overseas coal prices is also expected to boost China’s coal prices. With the approaching of the new year, some small mines have stopped production for holidays. At the same time, with the end of the supply guarantee task and the impact of the epidemic, the coal supply has narrowed slightly. On the demand side, the downstream transportation of non coal is still active. Although the power plant warehouse is at a high level, some power plants actively prepare the warehouse to meet the later power demand due to the repeated impact of the epidemic. However, the Spring Festival is coming in the later stage, and the demand will enter the traditional off-season due to the downstream holiday. If the coal mine still does not have a holiday during the Spring Festival, or there will be a price decline caused by the mismatch between supply and demand, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the Spring Festival holiday policy of the coal mine and the changes of the export ban in Indonesia in the later stage.
Coke prices continued to be stable, medium and strong. According to wind data, as of January 14, the on-site price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke closed at 3060 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The market price of Linfen secondary metallurgical coke closed at 2880 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In the port, the price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary metallurgical coke was 3310 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, the fourth round of coke rise and landing this week, with a cumulative increase of 700 yuan / ton. Coking enterprises at the supply side are still affected by environmental protection and production restriction, and it is difficult to increase the operating rate significantly. In addition, the price of upstream raw coal continued to rise, with significant cost support. In terms of demand, the operating rate of downstream steel mills has increased significantly and the purchasing strength has been strengthened. The short-term coke price is still expected to be strong. In addition, we need to pay attention to the upcoming Spring Festival and the possibility of releasing relevant production restriction policies during the Winter Olympic Games.
Coking coal supply is tight and the price continues to improve. According to wind data, as of January 14, the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 2830 yuan / ton, up 230 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. As of January 14, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine in Australia was US $410 / ton, up US $34 / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of origin, according to the coal resources network, this week, CCI Shanxi’s low sulfur weekly ratio increased by 110 yuan / ton, Shanxi’s high sulfur weekly ratio increased by 143 yuan / ton, and Changzhi injection coal was flat. According to the coal resources network, near the end of the year, safety inspections in various producing areas are more frequent. At the same time, mines in some areas have stopped production due to the epidemic, and the overall supply of coking coal may continue to be tight. In terms of demand, steel mills and coking plants have strong purchasing enthusiasm as a whole. On the whole, the downstream winter storage and replenishment efforts are increased, and the supply increment is limited. The coking coal market may face a tight supply and demand situation. It is expected that the market will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are also expected to usher in value revaluation. It is recommended to pay attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) Under the dual carbon target, we recommend Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) as the target for methane emission reduction.
Risk tip: risk of economic slowdown; Risk of sharp decline in coal prices; Risk of policy change.
