Policy: China, the United States and Europe resonate, and the marginal change of American policy is obvious. In China, subsidies have declined, but the mode has gradually changed from weight to quality. In Europe, the policy strictly controls the carbon emission requirements at the supply side, driving the acceleration of the electrification process of vehicle enterprises. In the United States, the federal subsidy bill is about to be implemented, and the growth potential of new models is huge.
Auto market: the demand exceeded expectations in 21 years, and the product driven speed increased in 22 years. In terms of China’s auto market, the demand exceeded expectations in 21 years and the penetration rate increased rapidly. Among them, the proportion of sales of pure electric vehicles continued to increase. In terms of levels, the models were distributed in dumbbell shape, and the growth space of class a vehicles was large; Wuling Hongguang mini, Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) performed brilliantly. In the past 22 years, the number of new products has increased, and PHEV has helped the structural penetration of new energy vehicles. We expect the sales volume in China to reach about 5.5 million. In terms of overseas auto market, various auto enterprises have put forward rapid growth targets, and European sales and penetration have reached a new level; 22 was the first year of American electric pickup supply, with a large growth slope.
Midstream: the tension between supply and demand in some links will continue in 21 years. In 21 years, the production of materials in the middle reaches increased month on month, but the prices of some main materials such as lithium carbonate, iron orthophosphate and 6F still rose sharply, putting pressure on the gross profit margin of the battery factory. In 22 years, with the cost transferred to the downstream, the profitability of the battery link is expected to rebound. At the same time, due to the relatively strong terminal demand, we believe that the impact of price rise on it is relatively limited. In 22 years, some links were still expanding production. Considering the expansion cycle, the tension between supply and demand in some links continued.
Infrastructure: the charging pile is pushed forward, and the replacement power station ushers in new opportunities. By 2021, the total number of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles has reached 7.84 million, the vehicle pile ratio is 6.84, the 20-year vehicle pile ratio is 6.07, the vehicle pile ratio has increased by 12.5%, and the charging anxiety has been alleviated significantly. In the past 21 years, there were 1298 power exchange stations in China, an increase over the past 20 years. With the entry of battery giants, the power exchange mode is expected to usher in new opportunities.
Investment suggestions: Main Line 1: the long-term competition pattern is good and there are marginal changes in the short term. It is recommended to focus on [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ], [ Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ], [ Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ], [ Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) ], etc., and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) ], [ Xi’An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) ], etc. Main line 2: 4680 technology iteration to drive the upgrading of the industrial chain. It is recommended to focus on [ Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ], [ Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ], [ Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ], [ Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ], [ Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ], [ Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ], [ Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) ], [ Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ], and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) ], [ Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) ], [ Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) ], [ Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) ] and other structural parts and related targets in the field of carbon nanotubes. Main line 3: look at the high boom industrial chain with tight supply and demand in 2-3 years. It is recommended to focus on [ Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ], [ Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ], [ Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ], [ Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ], [ Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ], [ Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ], [ Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) ], [ Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ], [beiteri], [ Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) ], and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) ], [ Far East Smarter Energy Co.Ltd(600869) ].
Risk tip: upstream raw materials rose more than expected. If the prices of upstream lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and nickel cobalt manganese metal rise more than expected, the downstream demand may be restrained under the cost conduction. The terminal demand is less than expected. The decline of subsidies and changes in consumers’ disposable income may affect end demand.
