View of semiconductor industry: according to TSMC’s first quarter method, the year-on-year growth of revenue in 2022 is expected to be revised up from 20% to 25-30%, the compound growth rate of long-term revenue is revised up from 10-15% to 15-20%, the capital expenditure this year is revised up from US $36 billion to US $40-44 billion, and the long-term gross profit margin is revised up from at least 50% to at least 53%. The company attributed this series of repairs to the rising price of wafer foundry, high-speed computing and the great demand for automotive chips. Although TSMC also estimated that the global semiconductor industry would grow by 9 points and the global wafer foundry industry would grow by 20% year on year, we believe that TSMC’s past forecasts on the global market and the industry were too conservative. The company’s capital expenditure on repair increased by 33-46% year-on-year, much higher than the expectations of Bloomberg analysts, of which 70-80% was for advanced process processes of 7Nm and below, 10% for packaging and testing and photomask equipment, and the remaining 10-20% for 8 “/ 12” mature process special processes. Therefore, we expect that the global semiconductor equipment investment should increase by 15-20% year-on-year or more (higher than the 10% predicted by semi), and the equipment investment in China’s wafer foundry and IDM plant should increase by at least 30% year-on-year (vs. Bloomberg analysts expect that SMIC and Huahong’s capital expenditure will decline year-on-year in 2022). It is suggested to focus on TSMC’s equipment and material suppliers in China, such as Zhongwei, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Jiangfeng, shengmei, Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Yitang shares, Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) . Although some investors are worried that TSMC’s substantial increase in investment in 8 “/ 12” special process technology will cause oversupply of special process, we assess that TSMC holds nearly 50% of this market share, and the capital expenditure of 20-25% is conservative compared with 40-45% of the same industry.
View of electronics industry: the proportion of sales revenue of TSMC Q4 smartphone chips in 2021 decreased from 51% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 44% in the fourth quarter of 2021. For PCs, servers, supercomputers and game consoles (what TSMC calls HPC applications for high-performance computing) increased from 31% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 37% in the fourth quarter of 2021. TSMC predicts that the driving force in the first quarter of 2022 mainly comes from HPC related demand, continuous recovery in the automotive field and seasonal demand support for smart phones. The passenger Federation predicts that Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million in 2022, and the development of electric vehicles also actively drives the rapid improvement of vehicle intelligent penetration. The application direction of new energy and intelligent vehicles focuses on silicon carbide, thin film capacitors, intelligent driving (camera, lidar) and connectors; Consumer electronics is mainly optimistic about AR / VR, folding mobile phone innovation, passive components and other fields; PCB is mainly optimistic about vehicle and server.
Viewpoint of the communication industry: the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy, which clearly puts forward that by 2025, the added value of the core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of China’s GDP. Among the relevant indicators of the communication industry, in 2025, the number of IPv6 active users will reach 800 million, the number of Gigabit broadband users will reach 6000, and the application penetration rate of industrial Internet platform will reach 45%. ICT has become a new engine to promote economic growth. We reiterate the view that the value chain of communication industry is transferred to a new generation of ICT industry, and suggest to grasp relevant investment opportunities from two main lines. First, it is a leader in the subdivided industry in the high growth track. It is recommended to pay attention to Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) in the field of Internet of things modules and Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) , Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) in the field of intelligent controllers; And in the subdivided track with large incremental space and high single vehicle value in the field of intelligent vehicles, the industry leader with competitive barriers has been established. Second, the industry leaders with improved competition pattern or reversed fundamentals in the traditional communication field, including the main equipment manufacturers with global expansion ability, such as Zte Corporation(000063) , and the operators in the global depression with improved fundamentals, such as China Mobile, etc, And the leading digital communication optical modules that are expected to continue to increase in capital expenditure of overseas cloud computing giants in 22 years, such as Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) , Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) .
Recommended combinations: Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Novoray Corporation(688300) , Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) , Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) .
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles / mobile phones is lower than expected, the intelligent configuration is not as expected, and the valuation is high
