Covid-19 epidemic continued to recur worldwide. Recently, the number of new cases in the world has reached a historical peak, and the number of new cases in most European and American countries is higher than the historical peak. The number of covid-19 inpatients in various countries has also increased correspondingly, but the increase is less than that of new cases. The number of death cases and mortality of covid-19 patients in various countries remain at a low level and have not increased significantly. The global vaccination rate has steadily increased to 60%, and the global average vaccination rate of booster injection has exceeded 10%.
The proportion of overseas Omicron mutants continues to rise, and the proportion of Omicron worldwide has increased from 25% last week to 43% this week, becoming the mainstream strain in more than countries.
Epidemic prevention and control may face new challenges. Based on the above data, we believe that the emergence of mutant strains has brought great challenges to the prevention of covid-19 infection, which may be due to the enhancement of transmission and the weakening of vaccine protection, resulting in a significant increase in new cases. On the other hand, the treatment for covid-19 infection remains effective, so the death toll has not increased significantly.
China has a rich layout of covid-19 oral drugs, and the R & D has been gradually promoted. At present, vv116 of Junshi / wangshanwangshui and azvudine of real organisms have made rapid progress in the research and development of covid-19 oral drugs in China. Fb2001 of Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) has also entered the clinic, and there are many preclinical drugs. The 3CL inhibitor s-217622 of yanyeyi, Japan, is in phase II / III clinical, and it is planned to provide 1 million copies of drugs by the end of March.
Chinese enterprises have also made positive progress in the R & D of other covid-19 drugs. The C5a monoclonal antibody stsa-1002 of Staidson(Beijing) Biopharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300204) completed the phase I clinical enrollment of the first case. The combination of neutralizing antibodies scta01 and sctv01c of Sinocelltech Group Limited(688520) in the treatment of covid-19 has been approved for clinical trial.
This week's view
Continue to be optimistic about the CXO sector: global industrial transfer + industrial upgrading, superimposed with the rise of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) innovation demand, the CXO track continues to be in high prosperity, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
It is optimistic about the eight growth directions of the main line of pharmaceutical high-end manufacturing in 2022, including cdmo, API, preparation going to sea, supply chain - equipment and equipment, supply chain - scientific instruments, supply chain - upstream consumables, supply chain - raw and auxiliary materials / packaging materials. For the drug segment, Pharma pharmaceutical enterprises that focus on undervalued and deterministic growth are recommended.
Focus on the hot spots of short-term epidemic prevention: the overall prevention and control of covid-19 epidemic needs three pronged approach, combined with covid-19 vaccine, neutralizing antibody and small molecule drugs, from the three directions of pre infection prevention, mild disease treatment and severe treatment. Based on the therapeutic mechanism, accessibility and economy of oral drugs, we continue to be optimistic about the application prospect of oral small molecule covid-19 drugs. At the same time, the short-term epidemic situation has been repeated, and the demand for epidemic situation detection has increased, especially the demand for overseas covid-19 detection. It is suggested to pay attention to five main epidemic lines (focusing on the first two): ① small molecule cdmo industrial chain and its upstream of fine chemicals; ② Epidemic detection, mainly covid-19 test kit suppliers (export); ③ Other upstream supply chains related to covid-19, including suppliers of antigens, antibodies, enzymes, plasmids, etc; ④ Epidemic related innovative drug R & D enterprises; ⑤ Other epidemic related, such as vaccine R & D enterprises and other anti epidemic equipment / consumables suppliers.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to: Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group, Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , etc.
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic development and change risk, product R & D data and progress are less than expected risk, product capacity and sales are less than expected risk, government orders are less than expected risk, policy risk, etc.
