Report summary:
On Friday, the average selling price of three yuan pigs abroad was 14.11 yuan / kg, down 6.93% from last Friday. On Friday, the average selling price of Sanyuan piglets outside 15kg nationwide was 26.75 yuan / kg, down 0.63% from last Friday. Pig prices continued to fall sharply month on month this week, falling below 14 yuan / kg in the northeast, southwest and northwest. The marketing of pigs has entered the final sprint stage before the Spring Festival. The supply of pigs has increased. In addition, affected by the recent epidemic, there are panic marketing in some areas, and the pig price has been trampled. From the perspective of cycle dimension, the downward trend of price starts in advance, the bottom will continue after the Spring Festival, and a new round of capacity removal is expected to start. It is suggested to pay attention to farmers' mood, the speed of capacity removal, and pig diseases in winter and spring. We maintain the expectation of 22h2 cycle reversal. From the perspective of enterprise, it is suggested to focus on enterprise capacity reserve and marketing flexibility. At the current time point, we continue to recommend the layout opportunities on the left side of the pig sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the breeding head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, and then pay attention to the second-line and small American Standard enterprises with dilemma reversal, large cost improvement expectation and uncertain growth.
In addition, Tonga volcanic eruption may have an impact on the global climate, thus affecting the rhythm of crop planting and harvest. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the impact of subsequent extreme weather changes.
Market review:
Among the sub industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery this week, the weekly increases and decreases are as follows: Fishery 23.00%, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing - 0.80%, livestock and poultry breeding - 0.83%, feed - 2.15%, planting - 2.20% and animal health care - 3.19%. Among the companies in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week, the top five companies are: Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) 69.51%, jiawo shares 28.94%, Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002086) 27.55%, Zoneco Group Co.Ltd(002069) 17.59%, Shanghai Xuerong Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300511) 13.54%; The top five companies are: Dayu Water-Saving Group Co.Ltd(300021) - 5.81%, Chalkis Health Industry Co.Ltd(000972) - 5.88%, Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) - 6.53%, Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) - 8.01%, Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(605016) - 8.05%.
Key tracking:
1. Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) announcement 2021 annual performance forecast
Event: on January 13, Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) announced the company's performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company expects to realize a total net profit attributable to the parent company of 60-90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.75% - 21.62%.
Key recommendations:
[key recommendations] Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201)
[attention recommended] Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526)
Risk tips: price fluctuation risk of livestock and poultry, impact of extreme weather, impact of animal diseases, etc.
