The national development and Reform Commission promotes the healthy development of housing consumption: on January 16, the national development and Reform Commission mentioned housing consumption in its consumption promotion policy: strengthen expected guidance, explore new development models, and adhere to the simultaneous development of rent and purchase; Promote the construction of indemnificatory housing; Support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers; Implement policies to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. We believe that under the urban policy, local governments continue to launch demand stimulus policies, while credit side policies continue to relax. The marginal loose policy environment is conducive to the improvement of house purchase demand and the rebound of market prosperity.
Many departments emphasize the supply of affordable rental housing: on January 11, the relevant person in charge of housing of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development pointed out to speed up the improvement of the housing security system. On the 14th, the headquarters of the central bank held an interpretation meeting of Shanghai affordable rental housing policy, with representatives of 10 banks participating. On the 16th, the national development and Reform Commission proposed to promote the construction of affordable housing and expand the supply of affordable rental housing. We believe that the implementation of affordable rental housing will be accelerated during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which will be beneficial to state-owned enterprises that have carried out affordable housing business, leading real estate enterprises that have arranged long-term rental apartments in advance, and light asset export enterprises that build affordable housing on behalf of others.
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) completed the issuance of M & A bonds: on January 12, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) 3 billion yuan of M & A notes were registered, and 2.58 billion yuan was issued in the first phase, of which 1.29 billion was used to acquire the equity of the residential project company and inject funds into the project company.
We believe that the financing advantages of high-quality real estate enterprises will accelerate the adjustment of industry structure. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) the rapid landing of M & A bonds reflects the support of the policy. The leading real estate enterprises with steady operation will further improve the market share by acquiring high-quality projects, while the radical real estate enterprises relying on highly leveraged expansion will accelerate the liquidation and continuously improve the industry concentration.
We believe that in 2022, the real estate sector will usher in investment opportunities with continuous improvement of policies and continuous optimization of the competition pattern of real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprise: Xuhui holding group.
Industry tracking
Sales review (01.08-01.14): 33 key monitoring cities, with a total transaction area of 4.059 million m2, an increase of 27.9% over last week; In 2022, a total of 7.232 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 32.6%. Among them, 798000 square meters were sold in first tier cities, down 0.8% from last week. In 2022, 1603000 square meters were sold, down 4.1% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 2.316 million square meters, up 55.4% from last week. In 2022, a total of 3.806 million square meters were sold, down 16.6% year-on-year; The volume of transactions in the third tier cities was 945000 square meters, an increase of 7.6% over the previous week. In 2022, the cumulative volume of transactions was 1823000 square meters, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 59.4%.
Land supply (01.03-01.09): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 1.71 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 3.56 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 92.6%, and the supply-demand ratio is 0.55. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 25296 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 6337 yuan / m2, an increase of 104.4% month on month and 93.1% year-on-year.
Land transaction (01.03-01.09): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 300000 m3, with a cumulative transaction of 6.45 million m2 in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 88.9%. In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 5746 yuan / m2, a month on month increase of 32.9%, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and the overall premium rate was 0.0%. In 2022, the average floor price was 4389 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and the premium rate was 3.9%, a decrease of 7.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tightened more than expected; Regulatory policies tightened more than expected.
