TSMC released 21q4 financial report, and it is expected that the production capacity will remain tight in 2022
TSMC’s Q4 revenue in 2021 was US $15.74 billion, with a gross profit margin of 52.7%. The revenue slightly exceeded the guidelines, and the gross profit margin was in line with expectations. The company expects that the production capacity will remain tight in 2022.
TSMC focuses on advanced processes, but the global advanced processes account for only 20%
TSMC Q4 advanced processes of 5nm and 7Nm account for more than 50% in 2021, and TSMC’s production capacity is inclined to advanced processes year by year. However, the global advanced process accounts for only 20%.
The world’s most lack of capacity is not an advanced process
In 2021, the top three in the capacity shortage are MCU, drive IC and power management, all of which are mature processes. MCU focuses on 40nm and above processes, and some adopt 28nm. The shortage of MCU capacity in 2021 is mainly affected by the shutdown of major suppliers such as NXP, Infineon, Renesas electronics and St. AP and HPC are mainly used in 7Nm and 5nm processes, and the shortage is not so serious.
Advanced processes are mainly high-performance computing, with high R & D costs and limited new customers in the short term
TSMC’s advanced process customers mainly include apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, MTK, NVIDIA, AMD and other high-performance computing customers. With the gradual reduction of the process, the cost of IC design is higher and higher. For example, the design cost of 7Nm and 5nm chips is US $300 million and US $500 million. Few design companies can pay such high R & D and design costs.
More than 70% of the supply is dominated by IDM manufacturers, and TSMC’s production capacity has a limited impact on global production capacity
Although TSMC is the global semiconductor OEM leader, it does not play a decisive role in the global semiconductor supply. Because more than 70% of the global semiconductor supply comes from IDM mode suppliers. Moreover, TSMC focuses on high-performance computing customers, and its production capacity is inclined to advanced processes. At present, the most scarce production capacity in the world is mature technology, so TSMC cannot represent the supply and demand of the whole industry.
The market of electronic sector is stronger than the market
From January 10 to 14, the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell 1.63%, and the electronic sector fell 1.47%, outperforming the market by 0.16 percentage points. Year to date, the Shanghai index fell 3.26%, CITIC electronics fell 7.05%, outperforming the market by 3.79 percentage points.
Increase in electronic industry segments
From January 10 to 14, only the PCB sector rose by 0.21%. Among them, security, panel, optical optoelectronics, led and consumer electronic equipment decreased the most, down 4.23%, 3.17%, 3.13%, 2.56% and 2.42% respectively.
Individual stocks up and down: A shares
From January 10 to 14, the top five companies in the electronics industry were Yes Optoelectronics (Group) Co.Ltd(002952) , Zhejiang Shengyang Science And Technology Co.Ltd(603703) , Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) and Xiamen Leading Optics Co.Ltd(605118) , up 31.84%, 21.41%, 21.30%, 17.98% and 15.97% respectively.
Investment advice
It is recommended to pay attention to Huahong semiconductor, Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) , Konfoong Materials International Co.Ltd(300666) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) , Cubic Sensor And Instrument Co.Ltd(688665) , Tianyue advanced, Aojie technology, Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , etc.
Risk tips
The development of advanced processes is not as expected, and there is a risk of mismatch between supply and demand of wafer capacity.
