Market review and Industry Valuation
Pharmaceutical biology rose 2.41%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.29 percentage points, ranking first among the 31 Shenwan sub banks. Most of the pharmaceutical sub sectors rose, with in vitro diagnosis rising the most, up 13.07%, and hospitals falling the most, down 6.42%. As of January 14, 2022, the PE (TTM) of Shenwan pharmaceutical industry was 34.48 times, and the latest premium rate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 155%. The valuation of TCM hospitals in the sub sector is the highest, 80.12 times, and the valuation of medical consumables is the lowest, 14.42 times.
Industry highlights
In 2022, more than 350 centralized purchase targets are issued in each province
The first traditional Chinese medicine injection was forcibly delisted
Progress of New Coronavirus pneumonia
As of January 16, 2022, there are 105087 confirmed cases in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), 3494 confirmed cases, 4636 dead cases, 96957 cured and discharged cases, and 12124 confirmed cases imported from abroad. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, by January 15, 2022, China had received 2.933 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine.
As of January 15, 2022, 326 million cases have been confirmed in the world. The country with the largest number of confirmed cases is the United States, with a total of 66.94 million, followed by India and Brazil, with 37.12 million and 23.01 million confirmed respectively. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, by January 15, 2022, 96.53 doses of covid-19 vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and the vaccination proportion (number of complete vaccinations / total population) was 50.08%.
Core view
The pharmaceutical sub sector showed obvious differentiation, the rapid spread of Omicron strain, the continuous spread of the global epidemic, the local outbreak of the epidemic in China, the collective rise of listed companies related to covid-19 testing, driving the sharp rise of in vitro diagnosis, medical equipment, blood products and medical R & D outsourcing, while vaccines, offline pharmacies and hospitals fell. In case of repeated outbreaks, we suggest paying attention to anti epidemic related beneficiary companies such as detection.
The overall development trend of the industry is improving, and innovation is the eternal theme. On the one hand, the normalization of volume procurement continues to accelerate industry differentiation, forcing enterprises to transform to innovation; On the other hand, the medical insurance catalogue was dynamically adjusted to continuously accelerate the volume of innovative drugs. Driven by policies, talents and capital, China’s innovative drugs have entered the harvest period of achievements and opened the road of Internationalization: (1) at present, China’s innovative drug R & D is more homogeneous, with more concentrated targets and indications. The industry has gradually transformed and upgraded from me too / me worth to higher quality and more innovative me better and first in class, with strong R & D strength and rich pipelines, The advantages of domestic innovation leading enterprises with reasonable gradient and outstanding product differentiation advantages will be further highlighted. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , etc; (2) With the progress of science and technology, new medical discoveries, new technologies and new fields are emerging, and biological emerging markets such as cell and gene therapy are developing rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to industrial development trends, high-quality enterprises and upstream industrial chains, such as life science services; (3) Global and Chinese innovative drug R & D is booming, and China’s CXO industry is developing rapidly. It is expected that with the promotion of policies and the continuous improvement of technical level, the industry concentration is expected to further improve. It is recommended to pay attention to industry leaders and sub leaders, such as Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) . In addition, performance forecasts have been released one after another, and it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality listed companies with sustained high-speed growth or marginal improvement of performance.
Risk tips
Industry policy risk, drug safety risk, R & D risk and market competition risk.
