Core view
In the market, the Wande all a index continued to decline in the past five trading days. Recently, Baijiu has been adjusted more widely. The main reason is that the market once again worries about the landing of the consumption tax. Two, Moutai’s price rise is expected to fail. Three, the epidemic has repeatedly affected consumption. The concept of prefabricated dishes is hot, Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) and other price limits. Near the Spring Festival, many governments launched local new year initiatives, giving birth to the demand for prefabricated dishes. In 2021, the space scale of Chinese prefabricated dishes is expected to reach 340 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the next 3-5 years, China’s Prefabricated food industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market. We believe that the industrialization of Chinese food and the demand for standardized production drive the expansion of the b-end market of prefabricated dishes, the increase of takeout penetration and the change of family structure promote the increase of the C-end sales of prefabricated dishes.
Industry trend review
Overall market performance, last week, the CSI 300 fell 1.98% to close at 4747.58 points, of which the food and beverage industry fell 4.40%, 2.42 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index and ranked 24th among the 28 Shenwan sub industries. In terms of sub sectors, most of the food and beverage sub sectors fell last week, of which wine rose the most, up 2.56%; The other wine decreased the most, falling by 10.62, followed by seasoning fermented products (-5.50%), soft drinks (-5.03%), beer (-4.71%) and Baijiu (-4.61%). In terms of individual stocks, Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) (32.58%), Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) (32.44%), Tonghua Grape Wine Co.Ltd(600365) (20.71%), Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) (18.35%), Henan Kedi Dairy Co.Ltd(002770) (13.33%) led the rise.
Industry highlights and important announcements this week
(1) on January 10, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) announced that it was expected to achieve an operating revenue of 6.3 billion yuan to 6.5 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 23% – 27%; The net profit was 1.9-2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% – 34%. Sales of the company’s “A+ class” products grew fairly well (including Baijiu factory guidance price of more than 300 yuan liquor products), the revenue growth is expected to exceed 35%, and the proportion of the company’s revenue has also increased to 65%. (2) On the evening of January 13, it was announced that the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about RMB 3.15 billion in 2021, an increase of about RMB 948 million compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of about 43%. In 2021, the company actively explored markets outside China, accelerated the upgrading of product structure, actively increased revenue and expenditure, reduced cost and increased efficiency, and realized the sustainable growth of operating profit.
Investment advice
1) Baijiu boom continues upward. Hold tight the Baijiu line and look for two or three lines with high elasticity. We should pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and so on. 2) When popular products enter Q3, the high base effect gradually disappears, and the price increase alleviates the cost pressure. With the arrival of the peak season, the performance is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to pay attention to Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) and so on.
Risk tips: the risk of epidemic exceeding expectations, food safety risk and market style change risk
