Industry core events:
This week, the State Council issued the notice on the development plan of digital economy in the 14th five year plan. At the same time, the people's daily released "strengthening, optimizing and expanding the digital economy". The planning requires relevant information industries to adhere to innovation leading and integrated development; Adhere to the application of traction and data empowerment; Adhere to fair competition, safety and order; Adhere to systematic promotion, coordination and efficiency. The plan proposes that by 2025, the digital economy will move towards a comprehensive expansion period, the added value of the core industries of the digital economy will account for 10% of GDP, the ability of digital innovation to lead development will be greatly improved, the level of intelligence will be significantly enhanced, the integration of digital technology and the real economy has achieved remarkable results, the digital economy governance system will be more perfect, and the competitiveness and influence of China's digital economy will be steadily improved. Looking forward to 2035, the digital economy will move towards a period of prosperity and maturity, and strive to form a unified, fair, orderly competition, mature and complete modern market system of digital economy. The development foundation of digital economy and the development level of industrial system rank among the top in the world.
Key investment points:
We believe that the new round of digital economy transformation will focus on the development from informatization to digitization. As the bottom channel of data transmission, the importance of communication network is self-evident. The essence of digital economy is to use digital technology to give new momentum to the high-quality development of society, so as to redefine the process of value creation. In the new round of digital transformation for higher connection orders of magnitude, stronger data transmission capability is its indispensable support. A large amount of information infrastructure will accelerate the transformation of China's digital economy in the future. Under the open, service-oriented and ecological digital enterprise operation mode, the change of enterprise business model and operation mode may bring more information transmission needs and more structural investment opportunities for the whole communication industry. In the future of continuous deduction of structural market in the communication industry, we suggest paying attention to five investment tracks in the communication industry:
(1) operators & equipment providers: in terms of optimizing and upgrading digital infrastructure, the plan requires to build an intelligent comprehensive digital information infrastructure with high-speed ubiquitous, integration of heaven and earth, cloud network integration, intelligence, agility, green, low-carbon, security and controllability, in which the number of active users in IPv6 will increase from 460 million in 2020 to 800 million in 2025. Promote 5g commercial deployment and large-scale application, prospectively lay out the sixth generation mobile communication (6g) network technology reserve, increase support for 6G technology R & D, and actively participate in promoting 6G international standardization. As the main investors and technology leaders of communication network, the importance of operators and equipment manufacturers is self-evident. At the same time, with the accelerated construction progress of 5g and data center in recent years, the performance of leading enterprises of some operators and equipment manufacturers continues to increase and the valuation is low. It is recommended to focus on it.
(2) optical module: the plan requires orderly promotion of backbone network capacity expansion, and coordinated promotion of gigabit optical fiber network and 5g network infrastructure construction. By 2025, Gigabit broadband will reach 60 million users. The continuous construction of "double Gigabit" network will directly drive the demand growth of 5g and PON optical module market on the telecom side. Moreover, since the second half of 2021, with the continuous rapid development of cloud computing, big data, ultra-high definition video, artificial intelligence and other industrial applications, the network access frequency and access means have been increasing, the network data traffic has increased rapidly, the capital expenditure of cloud computing manufacturers at home and abroad has resumed growth, and the edge of data communication terminal optical module has improved significantly. With the new round of optical module replacement brought by technological innovation, the industry is expected to usher in a new round of innovation in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading optical module enterprises.
(3) Internet of things module: the planning requires to improve the coverage level of the Internet of things in industrial manufacturing, agricultural production, public services, emergency management and other fields, and enhance the Internet of things access capability of solid mobile integration and wide narrow combination. As the core component of the Internet of things, the Internet of things module benefits from high certainty. Every increase in the number of wireless Internet of things connections will add at least one wireless module, which is the high certainty benefit direction under the rapid development of the Internet of things. In addition to the industrial manufacturing, agricultural production, public services, emergency management and other tracks mentioned in the plan, the Internet of vehicles module will still be one of the main directions of the future market growth of the Internet of things module in the next two years. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with deep layout in the Internet of vehicles industrial chain.
(4) temperature control: according to the planning requirements, promote the development of cloud network collaboration and computing network integration, continue to promote the construction of green digital center, accelerate the energy-saving transformation of data center, and continuously improve the utilization level of renewable energy in data center according to the principles of green, low-carbon, intensive and efficient. The key to the construction of green digital center is to improve the operation efficiency and optimize the energy consumption of temperature control system. In the short term, the optimization of temperature control system is more important. In the traditional temperature control scenario, air cooling is still the mainstream at present, but because the cooling efficiency of liquid cooling is higher than air cooling, the liquid cooling scheme may gradually replace air cooling. In 2025, the market scale of China's liquid cooling data center may exceed 100 billion yuan, and immersion liquid cooling will gradually become the mainstream. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading temperature control enterprises with data center liquid cooling technology.
(5) satellite Internet: the plan requires forward-looking layout of the sixth generation mobile communication (6g) network technology reserve, increase support for 6G technology R & D, and actively participate in promoting 6G international standardization. We will actively and steadily promote the evolution and upgrading of space information infrastructure, accelerate the layout of satellite communication networks, and promote the construction of Satellite Internet. We believe that in addition to the improvement of communication capability on the ground, 6G network will focus on the three-dimensional communication network. Through the integration of regional 5g network, airspace UAV / high-altitude airship platform communication system, space satellite communication network and sea deep-sea Ocean network, the global connection of air space integration is realized. At the same time, space orbit and frequency band, as preconditions to meet the normal operation of communication satellites, have become national strategic resources that satellite enterprises of various countries compete to seize, not just commercial competition. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets capable of launching LEO communication satellites.
Risk factors: increased trade friction, China's 5g construction does not meet expectations, the slowdown of global cloud computing construction, and the price fluctuation of upstream raw materials.
