Demand side: in December 2021, the medium and long-term loans of new residents changed from positive to negative year-on-year, and the short-term loans of new residents decreased. In December 2021, the short-term loans of new residents increased by 15.7 billion yuan in a single month, a year-on-year increase of – 86.3% (November – 39.0%); In 2021, a total of 1.84 trillion yuan of short-term loans for residents were added, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 4.2%.
In December 2021, the medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 355.8 billion yuan in a single month, a year-on-year increase of – 19.0% (November + 15.3%); In 2021, a total of 6.08 trillion yuan of medium and long-term loans were added to residents, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.2% (compared with + 3.9% in January November and + 9.2% in 2020). The proportion of medium and long-term loans to new loans was 30.5% (30.4% in January November and 30.3% in 2020).
On December 20, 2021, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises, encouraging banks to carry out M & a loan business in a stable and orderly manner, focusing on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of large real estate enterprises in danger and difficulties, which is conducive to resolving industrial financial risks, Protect the legitimate rights and interests of property buyers and promote the steady, orderly and healthy development of the real estate industry. Supply side: in December, the scale of domestic bond issuance improved slightly, and the primary market of US dollar bonds continued to be cold
In December 2021, real estate enterprises at home and abroad issued a total of 45.6 billion yuan of bonds in a single month, with a month on month ratio of – 6.5% (November + 69.4%), a year-on-year ratio of – 39.0% (November – 48.8%), and a monthly net financing of – 28.3 billion yuan (November – 20.1 billion yuan); Domestic bond issuance increased slightly compared with November, with a month on month increase of + 1.1% to 43.3 billion yuan, and a monthly net financing of – 15.5 billion yuan; The primary issuance scale of US dollar bonds continued to decline, with a monthly issuance of 2.3 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 61.2% (November – 41.2%), a year-on-year increase of – 84.8% (November – 84.3%), and a monthly net financing of about – 12.7 billion yuan (November – 9.1 billion yuan). In December 2021, the establishment amount of real estate collective trust was about 23.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 62.1%, accounting for 19.4% of the establishment scale of collective trust in a single month, slightly higher than that in November.
On December 10, 2021 Bank Of China Limited(601988) , the association of market dealers held a symposium for representatives of real estate enterprises, which will focus on supporting enterprises in line with real estate regulation policies to register and issue medium and long-term debt financing instruments, and the raised funds will be used to supplement the capital gap of sold projects under construction and for equity acquisition of real estate projects or assets. The domestic financing environment of real estate enterprises continued to improve, and the bond issuance interest rate of high qualified real estate enterprises decreased in December compared with the previous period. The overseas financing environment is still pessimistic. After a slight rebound in the fourth quarter of 2021, Chinese US dollar real estate bonds are still weak since the beginning of 2022; The financing of real estate enterprises has gradually returned to China.
Investment suggestion: on September 24, 2021, the central bank set the tone of “two maintenance”, and dispelled doubts on October 15“ α “Risk” exposure and“ β Coefficient “healthy and stable; On December 20, the central bank explicitly supported high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of large-scale real estate enterprises in danger and difficulties, and real estate enterprises such as Evergrande“ α The “risk” repair enters the implementation stage. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair, and development loans and mortgage loans have continued to pick up; The central bank comprehensively lowered the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points and released 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds, which is more favorable to the “leveraged and stable” private enterprise real estate; The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market. The central economic work conference reiterated that “housing is not fried” and then put forward “policies for the city”. We believe that the house purchase restriction measures in some regions will be gradually withdrawn, accelerate the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, and support the reasonable house purchase demand of residents.
At the beginning of 2022, the real estate sector ushered in a “good start”, and high-quality leading real estate enterprises performed well; As of the closing on January 13, Vanke A Rose 8.96%, Vanke enterprises rose 11.08%, China overseas development rose 19.99%, and China Jinmao rose 10.79%; We believe that with the enhancement of the expectation of interest rate reduction in the first quarter of 2022, the credit supply of residents’ improved housing mortgage loans is expected to be further supported, and the attention and confidence of the capital market in high-quality leading real estate enterprises will be further improved. Focus on Vanke A / Vanke enterprises, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Jinmao, China overseas development, China Resources Land, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; It is recommended to pay attention to Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) and Longhu group.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring, Sino US trade friction may lead to the development and employment of some industries in China less than expected, which will affect residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and the risk of credit default of some real estate enterprises increases
