This month’s view: the central meeting and statements have successively stressed that the rational issuance of real estate development loans and M & A loans, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry, and resolve the current round of crisis by means of marketization and commercialization. On the whole, the financing of real estate enterprises has warmed up. In 2021, the annual sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises increased negatively for the first time in nearly five years, the land acquisition of the top 50 real estate enterprises shrank, and the demand and investment side remained weak. In the future, the short-term industry liquidity crisis has not been eliminated, and the policy game space is still in place. The medium and long-term leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of the policy and stand out with comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders with stable cash flow Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) . The industry of property management and business management is optimistic about country garden service, poly property and high-quality commercial operators with outstanding comprehensive strength and continuous good operation, as well as Xingsheng commerce. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to waterproof faucet Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) .
Policy: positive signals continue to be released, and many places have introduced house purchase subsidy policies. In December, there were 36 housing related policies, including 5 tight policies and 22 loose policies. The frequency of housing related tight policies in a single month hit a new low in nearly a year. The policy of supporting the city and maintaining stability has a clear intention, and credit supports the collection and M & A of real estate enterprises. Many places have introduced house purchase subsidies and favorable policies for real estate enterprises, and there is still room for further policy fine-tuning in some areas under supply and demand pressure under the bottom line of “no speculation in housing”.
Capital: the financing margin of real estate enterprises has improved, and the demand for mortgage is weak. In December, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 increased by 0.5pct month on month, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance stock increased by 0.2pct month on month, and the capital was stable and loose. However, the previous backlog of mortgage loans had been released, the sales of commercial housing was depressed in the fourth quarter, the medium and long-term loans of new residents fell in December, and the demand for residents’ mortgage was still insufficient. Under the catalytic impact of credit risk events of real estate enterprises, the average yield of collective trust has reached a new high. In addition to central state-owned enterprises, high-quality private enterprises such as Longhu and Binjiang have successively started issuing corporate bonds recently, and the financing of the real estate industry shows signs of marginal recovery, but there is great pressure on rigid cashing in 2022.
Property market: at the end of the year, the pace of market promotion accelerated, and the transactions in key cities recovered month on month. In December, the monthly average daily turnover of new houses in key 50 cities increased by 20% month on month, the monthly average daily turnover of second-hand houses in key 20 cities increased by 17.5% month on month, and the turnover of new and second-hand houses recovered; However, the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises has not been resolved, buyers still have concerns such as “uncompleted tail”, and the “price for quantity” of real estate enterprises has also exacerbated the downturn of house purchase. The real estate enterprises rushed the annual performance, superimposed and relieved the cash flow pressure, and accelerated the promotion at the end of the year. The average approved listing area of commercial houses in 35 cities increased by 9% month on month, the average saleable area increased by 2.7% month on month, and the clearing cycle increased by 1.4 months month on month. The promotion rhythm accelerated, but the sales side was weak, resulting in the accumulation of inventory and clearing cycle; Housing prices in Baicheng fell for two consecutive months, and the pressure of market adjustment is still great.
Prefecture and city: three rounds of earth shooting are opened in many places, and the earth shooting is “hot cold cold” all year round. In December, three rounds of land auction were launched in many places, and the land trading volume and price rose simultaneously, up 28% and 20.8% month on month, respectively. However, the land auction operated at a low temperature, the bottom price or low premium rate was the mainstream, and it was common for urban investment to support the bottom; Although some cities adjust the land auction rules, the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to participate in the auction is still limited, and the land premium rate as a whole shows a downward trend in 2021.
Real estate enterprises: the annual sales of the top 100 have negative growth for the first time in nearly five years, and the land acquisition is still restricted. In 2021, the accumulated full caliber sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, the full caliber sales area decreased by 9% year-on-year, and nearly 40% of the sales increased negatively; In December, the full caliber sales amount and full caliber sales area in a single month decreased by 36% and 31.3% respectively year-on-year. In 2021, the overall sales showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. Looking forward to 2022, it is expected that the annual sales will still be under pressure and the regional differentiation will continue; The overall land acquisition strength of the top 50 real estate enterprises in 2021 was lower than that in 2020, and the land acquisition sales amount ratio and area ratio decreased by 10.8pct and 38.8pct respectively year-on-year. In the context of the overall decline of the market and blocked sales, real estate enterprises pay more attention to “fixed investment based on sales” and steady operation, and take land more carefully.
Sector performance: Shenwan real estate sector rose 6.7% in December, outperforming CSI 300 (2.24%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.41 times, and the valuation is at the quantile of 18.5% in recent five years.
Risk tips: 1) if the subsequent supply of goods is impacted due to the shortage of new soil storage, it will have a negative impact on the sales, commencement and investment of the industry; 2) If the pressure of property market deregulation exceeds expectations and sales continue to exchange price for volume, it will bring some early high price impairment risk; 3) The policy care is limited, and the adjustment range and time of the industry exceed expectations, which will have a negative impact on the development of the industry
