Liquidity: the growth rate difference between M1 and M2 was flat month on month in December 2021. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in December 2021 was 47.13, a month on month increase of + 7.26%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 5.5 percentage points in December 2021, flat month on month.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: in late December 2021, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises rebounded to the level at the end of July. (1) Price changes this week: thread – 0.42%, cement price index – 2.40%, rubber + 1.44%, coke + 6.99%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore + 1.82%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 2.00pct, + 2.95pct, + 0.60pct and + 6.98pct respectively; (3) In late December 2021, the average daily output of crude steel of key enterprises was 2092200 tons, a month on month increase of + 10.67%. Real estate completion chain: profits of glass and titanium dioxide rebounded. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.51% and + 0.00% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 3389 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 10.41%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 352 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 3.23%; (3) The price of PVC was 8775.00 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.19%.
Industrial chain: copper and aluminum prices and profits rebounded. (1) Price performance of main bulk commodities: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by – 0.54%, + 2.42%, + 0.52% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 15.39%, + 3.94%, + 7.11%; (2) The 4-week rolling value of the average daily sales volume of passenger cars wholesale and retail was 139000, with a month on month increase of + 22.75%.
Breakdown: the price of thermal coal rose sharply by 13.86%. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 24000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; (2) Nickel: the price this week was 167650 yuan / ton, up + 7.33% from last week; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 18700 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 3.31%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 4850 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 1.02%, and the profit is – 216 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21160 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.52%, and the estimated profit is 4558.1 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 7.11%; (6) The gross profit of alumina was 524 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of -7.91%; (7) Thermal coal: this week’s price is 945 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 13.86%; (8) Price performance of other varieties: the prices of molybdenum concentrate and tungsten concentrate increased by + 3.00% and + 2.24% month on month to 2400 and 114000 yuan / ton respectively.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread widened to 210 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of thread and iron ore was 5.65 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar is 210 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 800 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month comparison of – 10 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.13, which is at a 10-year low. (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, a month on month increase of – 17.39%.
Export chain: CCFI composite index continued to reach a new high. (1) China’s export container freight rate index CCFI composite index this week was 3489.94 points, a month on month increase of + 1.66%; (2) The utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States was 82.30% this week, with a month on month ratio of + 1.40 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 1.98%, the cyclical sector ranked first in shipping (+ 5.88%), and the quantile of Pb ratio of steel and industrial metals to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2015) were 27.08% and 52.87% respectively; The ratio of Pb in steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.66, and the highest value since 2012 is 0.92 (reached in February 2018).
Investment suggestions: Recently, relevant departments have repeatedly stated that the construction of national water network and urban municipal pipe network will become the starting point of new infrastructure. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subjects: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Shandong Iron And Steel Company Ltd(600022) , Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) .
Risk prompt: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; The risk of poor management of the company.
