Market review: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.6%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.3%, the non bank financial index fell 3.0%, of which the insurance index fell 3.5%, the brokerage index fell 3.0%, the diversified financial index fell 1.2%, and the Hang Seng financial industry index rose 3.7%. Since the beginning of 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 3.3%, the Shenzhen composite index has fallen by 4.8%, and the non bank financial index has fallen by 4.1%, 0.8pct behind the Shanghai Composite Index and 0.7pct ahead of the Shenzhen composite index. This week, the top five stocks in the sector rose: Nanhua Futures Co.Ltd(603093) (5.24%), Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) (2.27%), Ruida Futures Co.Ltd(002961) (1.99%), Guosheng Financial Holding Inc(002670) (1.27%), China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (0.11%). Industry key data tracking: the average share based trading volume on Sunday was RMB 1153.5 billion, up 9.35% month on month. As of January 13, the balance of margin trading and securities lending was 1814.8 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 0.88%, accounting for 2.49% of the circulating market value of a shares, and the transaction volume of two financing accounts for 7.11% of the transaction volume of a shares. 419.4 billion shares were pledged this week, accounting for 5.27% of the total share capital, down 1PCT from last week; The total amount of market pledge is 4081.4 billion yuan, accounting for 4.20% of the market value of pledge; The capital raised by equity financing was 65.6 billion yuan, and the amount of corporate bonds issued was 44.4 billion yuan.
Major news of the industry: ① on January 14, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) issued a share allotment announcement. (1) Expected short-term adjustment of share price: the largest shareholder will subscribe in full in cash, but some shareholders, especially some small and medium-sized shareholders, are not enthusiastic about participation, which may lead to short-term pressure on the share price before the equity registration date, and the equity concentration will rise. (2) Long term prospects: the funds raised this time will be mainly used to develop capital intermediary business, increase investment in subsidiaries, strengthen information system construction, etc. in addition, the company has good performance and stable leading position in the industry. It is expected that the probability of filling in the right is large. ② The cbcirc issued the measures for the administration of connected transactions of banking and insurance institutions, which shall come into force as of March 1, 2022. It is of great significance to strengthen the management of related party transactions of banking and insurance institutions and prevent the risk of interest transmission. Main contents: (1) control the number and scale of related party transactions and avoid complex arrangements such as multi-layer nesting. (2) Clearly set prohibitive provisions, and strengthen identification and identification methods in accordance with the principle of substance over form and penetration supervision. (3) Enrich regulatory measures and take measures to restrict related party transactions for bank and insurance institutions with assessment results of grade E.
Key issues next week: focus on the trading volume of the stock market in January and the progress of the “good start” of insurance companies.
Securities: the securities index fell sharply on Friday, which was affected by the announcement of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) allotment of shares by the industry leader to a certain extent. Overall, China’s steady growth policy is expected to be superimposed on the steady implementation of the capital market registration system and the pilot of the market maker system, further opening up the development space of the securities industry. We believe that securities companies with high growth and low value have higher configuration cost performance. From the company level, leading securities companies and some securities companies with differentiated competitiveness are expected to obtain excess returns. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: 1) for the leading securities companies with outstanding comprehensive strength and obvious moat advantages in the securities industry, it is recommended to recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (a + H); 2) Securities companies with differentiated competitiveness in the wealth management segment recommend China stock market news and pay attention to Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) with the rapid development of investment advisory business.
Insurance: the insurance index fell this week. Some listed insurance companies disclosed the premium income in December 21, which is consistent with the market expectation of annual premium pressure. The “good start” in 2022 is expected to be suppressed by the high base in 2021, and there is little room for year-on-year improvement of premiums. The performance of the insurance industry is expected to turn around in the second half of the year. However, considering the sufficient adjustment of insurance stocks in the early stage, listed companies can focus on China’s property insurance with significantly narrowed risk exposure and AIA, which is at the forefront of channel transformation, and long-term recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H) and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H) for multi line layout of health and elderly care industry.
Investment suggestion: Insurance: recommend China property insurance, AIA, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (a + H), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (a + H); Securities companies: recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (a + H), China stock market news, and pay attention to Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) .
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected; The long-term interest rate is lower than expected
