Last week, the average daily trading volume of A-Shares was 1073.753 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 12.62%. As of January 13, 2022, the balance of two cities and two financial institutions was 1814.775 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 0.88%, an increase of 2.62% over the daily average level in 2021 (1768.449 billion yuan).
Last week, the CSI 300 index fell 1.98%, and the CSI all bond (net price) index rose 0.19%. As of January 13, 2022, the number of market pledged shares was 419.414 billion, accounting for 5.66% of the total share capital, and the market value of market pledged shares was 4081.425 billion yuan.
The liquidity environment affects the sentiment of securities companies, and financial terminals and H-share non bank have better performance
This week, due to the failure of the expectation of loose liquidity in the market and the sharp decline of risk appetite, the brokerage sector reflected the beta attribute strongly related to a shares, down 2.60%. The performance express of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 54.20%) was better than the performance pre increase disclosed on January 4 (net profit attributable to the parent company increased by no less than 18.41%), which boosted the market’s expectations for the growth of bond business performance, but the subsequent announcement of allotment and issuance triggered extensive discussion.
Non bank stocks with relatively good performance this week were distributed in financial terminals and H shares, Shenzhen Ysstech Info-Tech Co.Ltd(300377) (6.10%), Shenzhen Fortune Trend Technology Co.Ltd(688318) (3.92%) and Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) (1.14%), with more than half of the 19 A + H non bank companies recording an increase.
The policy dividend period is still in progress
This week, various regulatory agencies issued a series of guidelines to promote the reform of the capital market, and foreign securities companies and joint venture financial management companies are coming fiercely: the CSRC launched the reform of goods and bank payment, and China Clearing simultaneously reduced the settlement reserve; The CSRC plans to strictly supervise important money market funds; The vice chairman of the CSRC made a statement on listing and financing in Hong Kong; Quantifying the excess return of private placement and improving the conditions of performance reward; Alipay golden selection is on the line. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) issued the relevant management measures for financial leasing.
The reform of cash versus delivery is conducive to enhancing the security of the settlement system and further attracting foreign funds to enter the Chinese market. The reform simultaneously reduces the minimum payment proportion of settlement reserves of settlement participants, which is conducive to reducing the occupation of funds in the whole market and improving the efficiency of fund use.
The right layout of securities companies focuses on three indicators
After two weeks of adjustment, the overall price to book ratio of securities companies was 1.61 times, lower than the average level of 2020 and 2021. At the same time, the roe level of securities companies increased steadily. The mismatch between sector valuation and performance growth brings left configuration opportunities. The beneficiaries are GF, Societe Generale, China stock market news, Zheshang and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) . One belt, one road, the other two sides, the whole system of stock issuance, the international trading system reform and the mature trading system, and the comprehensive account optimization of securities companies. The brokerage sector has a strong beta attribute, so A-share liquidity, transaction activity and market sentiment will be magnified on the market of the sector. We expect to be in the stage of wide liquidity to wide credit in the next 2-3 quarters. For investors who pay attention to the layout signal on the right side of the securities business sector, they can pay attention to 1) the transaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has been enlarged to more than 1.4 trillion yuan, 2) the daily transaction volume of the securities business sector (801193. SI) has been enlarged to 100 billion yuan, and 3) the securities lending scale of listed securities companies has shrunk rapidly.
In addition, the full implementation of the registration system will directly benefit the venture capital sector, broaden the exit channels of venture capital funds and improve the utilization rate of funds. Jiangsu Huaxicun Co.Ltd(000936) , Luxin Venture Capital Group Co.Ltd(600783) , Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co.Ltd(000935) are expected to benefit. In addition, H-share investors confirm the marginal improvement of real estate later than A-shares, and the investment side of the insurance sector is affected by the real estate boom, so H-share insurance stocks are expected to usher in a make-up rise.
Risk tips
Risk of sharp fluctuation of RMB against US dollar, overseas epidemic and liquidity impact; China’s liquidity easing process is less than expected; Decline in transaction activity of a shares, compliance risk of listed companies and shareholder qualification risk of securities companies, attention to shareholder reduction information, lower than expected growth rate of new policy premiums in the insurance industry, and higher than expected fluctuation risk of interest rates.
